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Thursday, January 18, 2018

Another pause today as the Dow dropped 97 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  This could get the summation index to turn around and potentially head lower.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  I'm still considering the SPY February puts but will let this week go by as we have option expiration tomorrow.  The indicators on the VIX are also getting to an area where we should see it turn around and head lower.  There are no negative technical divergences on the major stock averages that I see.  So I'm still trying to be patient before attempting the next trade.  Now some of the short term technical indicators have rolled over on the RUT.  This is potentially an early warning of what's to come.  But there are no guarantees  That may not mean anything.  GE got pounded again ahead of its earnings and lost over 1/2 on very heavy volume.  Near term support has failed.  We luckily stepped aside attempting the calls at the $17.50 level.  We'll see how it goes with the earnings tomorrow.  Gold was off $10 on the futures despite a drop in the US dollar.  The XAU lost 1 1/2, while GDX declined 1/3.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  An interesting week so far as the parabolic run in the Dow seems to be running out of steam.  How we close tomorrow should be a telling sign.  A potential US government shutdown looms but that is something that would eventually get resolved.  I'm not sure how much the market really cares about that.  We have seen an uptick in interest rates which is something that eventually would get the market attention.  But the fundamentals right now are all in stocks favor.  Lower corporate tax rates mean higher profits any way you look at it.  We'll stick with the technicals though and they remain vastly overbought.  I'll keep an eye on the SPY February puts and hope to eventually do a trade there.  Europe and Asia were mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how the expiration goes tomorrow.

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