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Friday, January 26, 2018

The parabolic run higher continues as the Dow poured on another 223 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  GDP was a little less than expected but it didn't matter.  The only thing that matters is that the market is going higher.  Earnings continue to come in and projections are for more profits as the new corporate tax rate goes into effect.  It doesn't look like anything can bring this market down but I will continue to warn you.  When it gets going like this the end will not be pretty.  But who can tell when the end will be?  Still overbought on all time frames for the major averages any way you look at it.  The technical indicators haven't been working for weeks.  I am still looking at the SPY February puts but still have no idea on when to purchase them.  Perhaps next week.  GE was off a few cents on still pretty good volume.  $16 has held for now.  There is a possible short term double bottom here on the daily chart with a potential positive RSI divergence.  I'm not sure if I'd try the February calls here though.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Gold dropped $15 on the futures which reflected what happened yesterday on the aftermarket.  The US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on average volume.  No trades in mind here but to me it looks like the gold shares a re due for a rest.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Quite a January so far for stocks and it doesn't look like anything can derail this runaway freight train.  We are so overextended by any stretch of the imagination that I am at a loss as what to do.  I mean I know that getting the SPY puts at some stage will work and they will probably work pretty good.  However when the technicals are so far out of whack that they remain overbought or oversold for weeks on end, you know you're in a situation that doesn't occur very often.  It reminds me of the dot com run up at the turn of the century when companies were bid up with no products or earnings.  We've got products and earnings this time around but the price action is similar.  We all know what happened back then though and I expect a repeat of history is coming at some point.  I suppose all you can do here is watch and wait.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend as usual.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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