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Tuesday, January 30, 2018

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 362 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were again over 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading down.  Two days don't make a trend but I can tell you that the trend is now down.  The rally is over.  Parabolic moves higher never end pretty and we are now seeing the picture.  Any rallies can be shorted in my opinion.  We had a gap lower today and if we're lucky perhaps that gap will be filled and give us an opportunity to buy some SPY February puts.  But we may just keep going straight down here and if that's the case it will be an opportunity missed.  I also think that this is probably the end of the bull market that began in 2009.  We've reached the measuring objectives of the 5 wave move up from there.  Perhaps we'll make a nominal new all time high but I would not be surprised if this is it for the longer term bull market.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was heavy.  Just below $16 here.  It would be a good spot to get some calls if you thought GE will hold here.  I'm going to concentrate on the SPY here instead.  Gold was off a little on the futures and the US dollar dropped slightly as well.  The XAU lost 7/8 and GDX fell 1/4.  Volume was lighter.  No flight to safety here today.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated as I do want to participate in the profits on this decline.  I can't really fault myself too much though as there was no signal to get short.  Just a parabolic move higher that continued to spin out of control to the upside.  However now that we know what is going on, I'll be trying the SPY February puts on any move higher.  I do think that kind of trade will work going forward.  The only problem here is that we simply may continue lower without any bounce up.  If that is the case I will have to look to play the bounce if we get short term oversold.  The VIX has spiked into overbought territory on some of the short term indicators so perhaps we'll see some relief there soon.  There is plenty of time left in the February option cycle to make something work.  But the increase in volatility will make things interesting and more difficult to say the least.  We'll get the Fed announcement tomorrow and then the jobs numbers on Friday.  We've got the end of the month tomorrow as well.  Also throw in the state of the union speech tonight.  So there's plenty for the market to digest the rest of this week.  Europe and Asia were both lower as the world is now selling off stock assets together instead of buying.  We'll see how long this keeps going on.  Keep an eye on things overnight along with the futures market reaction to the state of the union address. 

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