Friday, December 29, 2017
Not sure what we saw today as the market fell apart in the final half hour. The Dow fell 118 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still trending higher. Probably just some end of the year squaring off in the final minutes today because there wasn't any news to account for the move. It did cause the short term technical indicators to roll over though. I still expect a strong start to the new year for stocks. Perhaps I'll take a closer look at the SPY January calls over the long weekend. GE was up about a dime and the volume remains heavy. My open order is still out there and I'll leave it open in case we get a decline on Tuesday morning. But I doubt it. I still think that GE will be finding buyers as the new year begins and I'm afraid that I just didn't get filled on this trade. Gold added $7 and the US dollar continues to drop. The XAU and GDX were little changed at the close on light volume. The gold shares have stalled despite a drop in the greenback. Mentally I'm feeling OK. A little spike in the VIX on the close but I don't think that it is the start of a serious decline for stocks. I would be surprised if the beginning of the year brings lower prices. But I could be wrong. GE is another story and I may just be too late there. The Bollinger bands have contracted to the point where something substantial is going to happen. My belief is that it will be to the upside. I'll ponder the possibilities over the weekend. I finished the trading year with a loss of 15%, mainly due to the laddering of the SPY puts in October. I suppose it could have been worse. However it doesn't matter now as it's on to 2018. I'm guessing we won't see another year that was mainly higher all the time. Not even a 5% correction for the S&P 500 in 2017 if I remember things correctly. I really don't think that will be case as we roll the calendar forward. Asia was mixed and Europe lower with the exception of the FTSE in last nights trade. Plenty of charts to check over the weekend to come up with a winning strategy to start off the new year. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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