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Thursday, March 01, 2018

Another downer for stocks as the Dow lost 420 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 400 market would suggest.  The summation index is heading lower.  The short term up trend line has been broken and the technical indicators have rolled over.  That's over 1000 points in three days for the Dow and volatility has returned.  I'm not exactly sure where we go from here but I'm not expecting any kind of huge drop.  That said, we are moving closer to the zero line in the summation index.  That is the line in the sand for some type of crash event.  We aren't there yet but even getting close is a worry.  I guess the market doesn't like the new Fed chairman but we all know that it isn't that easy.  GE lost nine cents for a new closing low for the year.  Volume remains heavy here.  I still have the open order out there for the March calls here.  This may not be the best idea but I'm willing to give it a try.  Gold was flat on the session as it came up off of the lows.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares are at their recent lows and need to hang in here or they will be going a lot lower in my view.  Interest rates have been dropping this week but it hasn't helped the market so far.  Once again, I'm not sure what is going on here.  One of the things that worries me is that the technical indicators still have plenty of room to fall.  So some of my thinking is that if we get a rally out of nowhere, that could be the time to try the SPY March puts again.  Just a thought for now.  I think that I'm going to let tomorrow go by and reassess things over the weekend.  The jobs number may not mean anything because it seems that the market has a mind of its own right now.  It knows things that we don't.  Volume is increasing with each day lower so far.  But the small stocks have had better relative strength in this weeks decline.  That usually means that we aren't on the verge of a major breakdown.  Perhaps this is the retest of the lows from early February.  That's just a guess as usual.  Like I said, I think I'll watch what happens tomorrow and go from there.  Asia was mostly lower with the exception of China and Hong Kong.  Europe was down.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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