Friday, March 09, 2018
The market took off higher from the start as the Dow roared ahead by 440 points on light volume. The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading higher. My SPY March put trade was a loser by 75%. The employment number didn't matter as the market broke through to new all time highs on some of the small stock indices. The S&P 500 broke through the short term down trend line, following what the small stocks had already done. The three black crows candlestick pattern did not work out. My indicator that was short term overbought simply stayed that way. It was just another losing trade that has become all too common here for me lately. It's back to the drawing board for me. GE was up 3/8 on OK volume and appears to be poised to head higher from here. In retrospect the March call idea there would have worked. Gold finished up a couple bucks while the US dollar ended little changed. The XAU and GDX finished little changed. The strong jobs number did nothing much to gold and the US dollar. Mentally I'm feeling frustrated at yet another losing trade. Trading with just a week or so left in the option cycle leaves no room for error. I'm better trading near the beginning of the option cycle months. Perhaps this time I'll keep that in mind. The market wants to go higher here and I did have that thought at some point this week. Didn't pay attention though. It now looks like my whole underlying theory of the final market top being put in for the bull market is wrong. It appears that we have higher to go for the S&P 500. The small stocks continue to be in the lead and that can't be ignored. Keep an eye on them for the clues since they have been the leaders either way for quite a while. An upwards summation index is another clue as to the overall direction. The market has a mind of its own as usual. While a strong employment report might have been a concern for higher rates, the market chose to focus on the fact that the economy is in good shape. It is an interesting game and a difficult one at the same time. I made yet another mistake and mistakes in this game cost you. I can only go back and reassess what I did wrong and go from there. I will take a long look at the charts this weekend but it's safe to say that I'll be on the sidelines until my confidence returns. Europe and Asia were higher overnight with the exception of the DAX. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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