Tuesday, March 27, 2018
Back to the downside today as the Dow lost 344 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. We were up over 200 points halfway through the session. But the market simply started to drop off from there and just kept going. The small stocks were much weaker and that's a problem for the bulls. If we don't hold up tomorrow, I believe the market will really start to find trouble. If the S&P 500 closes below its 200 day moving average, that would spell more problems for obtaining higher prices. My SPY April calls are still losers. I did have a good opportunity to cut the loss today but did not take it. Why tomorrow is so important is because we got the expected bounce already and that may have been it. If we head lower from here you'll know that the bear market is in place. GE found some life on speculation somebody is picking up its shares. And by somebody, I mean a major trader. GE finished with a gain of over 1/2 on very heavy volume. GE is now trying to hold the $13 level after failing at $14. Gold dropped $11 as the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed almost 1/2. Volume was good. I'm thinking about going out to the September calls for GDX. I'll be waiting until it gets short term oversold before pulling the trigger on this idea. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Only 2 days left in the trading week and things could get thin on Thursday as players leave early for a holiday weekend. The price action here is pretty negative. Tomorrow is going to be a key as to where we are going. The VIX rose again today and it's got plenty of room to go either way. We've got the end of the month on Thursday. I can't think that there would be too many traders wanting to get long ahead of the extended weekend. That could prove to be a problem. But first we have to get through tomorrow. I probably should have simply exited my call position today. I am still holding out hope that we'll hold the 200 day moving average and that this is a double bottom forming in the S&P 500. We'll know pretty soon. Europe and Asia both rallied overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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