Monday, March 19, 2018
An interesting start to the week as the Dow fell 335 points on light volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative. This should move the summation index back down but for now I'll call it sideways. The small stocks led the way down with the indices that made new all time highs now breaking their up trend lines that began in early February. Perhaps the market is just nervous ahead of the Fed but it looked like technology led the way down. We are short term oversold here and some kind of bounce should materialize. GE was off 1/4 on lighter volume. We'll see if the $14 level can hold things in here for GE again. Gold gained about $5 as the US dollar was weaker. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves on light volume. We'll see if we get some real movement here after the Fed. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up over 20 today and we'll see if that is a sign of things to come. Not a lot of economic data out this week so It's all about the Fed. A rise in rates is expected so I don't expect any surprises there. But you never know. Todays market action was not anticipated by me so perhaps the market knows something that we don't. We're getting the usual rants out of Washington that the market ignores. There was some negative Facebook headlines but nothing that appeared too serious. We did come up off of the lows for the session but it was still an ugly start to the trading week. We'll see if we get any downside follow through tomorrow. There is a short term buy signal out there but since we just rolled into the April option cycle, the premiums are too high to take a position in my opinion. So I'll be watching and waiting for now. We'll let the Fed pass and go from there. There is no hurry to put on a trade. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in overnight trade. We'll keep an eye on the headlines and developments heading into Tuesday.
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