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Friday, March 23, 2018

The stock market got clobbered again as the Dow lost 425 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were about 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is heading lower.  Extremely oversold on some of the short and medium term technical indicators so a bounce cannot be too far off.  I'm getting killed in my SPY April call trade as the market has dropped over 1000 points since I purchased theses yesterday.  I'll sell out at a loss on the bounce.  What if there is no bounce?  Then things will be getting really ugly and fast.  The last two days will seem like nothing.  But I really do not expect that to occur.  However as usual the market will do what it wants.  The S&P 500 is at its 200 day moving average and that should provide some near term support.  But like I said, if it doesn't then watch out.  GE lost another 1/4 on average volume.  Gold gained twenty bucks as we got some flight to safety buying there.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 2 1/8, while GDX gained 5/8 on good volume.  I'm not sure how long this can last because in my mind the fundamentals for gold are still bearish.  Mentally I'm feeling so-so.  My trading has been so bad lately that I'm beginning to think all that I've learned over the years means nothing.  That's what losing in the game will do to you.  Your confidence will be lost and there is no chance for success like that.  My failure to recognize and act on what the market is telling you is really starting to cost me.  But as I've already stated before, when the technical indicators stop working I'm at a loss.  We are in a zone where normally you would see a multi hundred point rally due to the extremely oversold market condition.  I expect that in the next couple of days.  If we don't see that happen then anything goes to the downside.  The fact that we closed with selling again is not a plus.  But we are at the 200 day moving average for the S&P and also at the lows of early February.  So we should see the bulls try and make a stand here early next week.  That's my best guess at the moment.  I'll be taking a loss in this SPY April call trade but I will try and cut it back if we do see a short term rally.  There is plenty of time left in the April option cycle but I do not want to hold this trade that long.  I do not think that the market is going to have an extended rally from here.  Foreign markets took it on the chin as well with Asia getting the worst of it.  I'll be looking things over this weekend but the game plan has already been established for the beginning of next week.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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