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Tuesday, March 20, 2018

A bit of some upside today and that was expected as the Dow rose 116 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is heading sideways.  It was a weak bounce and that does not inspire a lot of confidence.  That said I am looking at the SPY April calls now if the market cooperates with the scenario that I have in mind.  If we see weakness into Thursday, I'm willing to attempt a trade there on the call side for the short term.  We're already short term oversold here even with todays feeble rally.  But the market would have to trend lower from here to try this idea out.  We'll have to see the reaction to the Fed tomorrow and go from there.  GE was off 3/8 on average volume and has broken through the $14 level.  I won't be trying any trades here at the moment.  Gold was off $7 as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on better volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  No rush to trade here but if things line up I do believe that it will be worth a short term shot.  One of the problems here is that the April option cycle has an extra week in it and that causes the premiums to be inflated.  But if the time is going to be right for this idea, I'll have to pay up in order to take the chance.  Tomorrow should be a wait and see morning on the Fed in the afternoon.  I have no idea what will happen but it is a given that short term rates will be going up a notch.  That is already in the market in my opinion so I suppose we'll have to see what the Fed head has to say afterwards and how the market responds.  My hope is that it's a non-event and we roll into Thursday.  The market rarely cooperates.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  All eyes and ears on the Fed tomorrow.

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