Tuesday, March 06, 2018
We bounced around today and the Dow managed a gain of 9 points on light volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. Once again the overall market was much stronger that the Dow. The small stocks are showing good relative strength and that is usually bullish. The RUT has broken through its short term down trend line. The market looks like it is poised to go higher. I did place an order for the SPY March puts and have left it open overnight. But this may not be the right move. I am counting on the three black crows candlestick pattern on the daily charts here to be valid. Not all patterns play out as they're supposed to. This may be the case here. The market certainly has a right to go where it wants. I'll consider canceling this trade tonight. GE was up almost 1/4 on lighter volume. Maybe GE has finally reached its bottom and that would help with the bullish cause for the overall market. Gold found a bid and gained $15 on the futures. The US dollar was lower. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX is continuing to move lower and heading back to its 50 day moving average. That would be a logical spot to try the S&P 500 puts again as well. But we aren't there yet. 8 days to go in the March option cycle, so the risk in a trade now is elevated with each passing day. If we continue to drift ahead of Friday, I'll probably try the SPY March calls. Ideally we'd levitate higher on light volume into the close on Thursday and that would be the time to take a chance on the puts. However I must caution that the some of the small stock indices have triangle patterns on their daily charts. The triangles have a flat top and imply a breakout to the upside very soon. So we've got conflicting signals on some of the charts patterns. I'll simply continue to monitor what's going on and try and make the correct decision going forward. Asia had good overnight gains but Europe not so much. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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