Thursday, March 08, 2018
We bounced around for most of the day, with a final whipsaw back and forth the in the final half hour. The Dow gained 93 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is moving higher. I placed an order for the SPY March puts early, changed it and then changed it back again. I finally decided that if I could get it at the price that I wanted, I would give it a try. The order was finally filled in the last half hour gyration. It is showing a small loss. I am certainly not sure this is the right move but if the three black crows candlestick pattern is legitimate, this trade will work. We still haven't made it up to the 2750 level on the S&P 500 but we're getting close. Of course we could simply blast through there tomorrow on the jobs report. That would doom this trade. The VIX is at the moment of truth as well. It did make it down to the 15 level today and closed right at the 50 day moving average. So volatility will either pick up here or that period is over for now. Lots of questions and we should get the answers rather soon. As in tomorrow. GE was flat on the day and the volume was light. Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was higher. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. So the next trade is on and I do think that things could still go one way or the other. But we did get a light volume drift higher this week and that was something I was looking for. As long as we don't get a huge rally on good volume tomorrow, I'm inclined to hold this trade into next week. We are short term overbought on one of my indicators but could always just stay that way. That is how things went last year but this is 2018. I got the price I was looking for on the SPY puts, now it is a matter of time and where the market goes. I have no idea what will be reported tomorrow but as usual the only thing that matters is the market reaction to it. So we'll see. Europe and Asia were both higher in overnight trading. We'll keep an eye on tonights trading and await the employment report tomorrow.
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