Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Continuing lower as the Dow lost 380 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is now trying to turn back down. No news to account for the drop today. Perhaps the market is wary of tomorrows words from the new Fed chief Powell. However now technically the S&P 500 has broken the short term trend line form the beginning of the month and lower prices can be expected. We closed near the lows for the session and I am assuming that it is too late to get the SPY March puts again. At this point I'll have to wait for the VIX to get back to the 15 level to attempt any SPY puts. GE was off 3/8 and the volume remains pretty good. I did place an order for the GE March calls but we'll have to see some more weakness for it to get filled. I'm not exactly sure this is the best idea here going forward but there isn't a lot of money involved. I may even cancel this trade tomorrow if things really begin to unravel in the overall market. Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar was a bit higher. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on lighter volume. I'm still of the belief that the fundamentals for the gold shares aren't positive at this time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Well the former SPY March puts that I sold for a loss last week are now back in the black. Of course looking back will usually do you no good in this game. Where we go from here is what counts. Obviously it looks like we're going lower as the up trend line has been broken. Could this be a retest of the lows set in the beginning of February? Perhaps. The only thing that I can say for sure is that volatility has picked up. We will not be seeing a repeat of the market that just keeps going up and remains overbought for weeks on end. With the losses of the past two sessions I suppose we can wait for a short term oversold signal if we continue lower. That would be an opportunity to try the SPY March calls at some point before the expiration. But we're a long way from that. Staying nimble here is the best advice and taking profits when you get them isn't a bad idea either. Europe and Asia were both lower in last nights trading action. We'll see how the market reacts to the Fedspeak tomorrow.
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