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Thursday, February 15, 2018

The market continues to climb higher as the Dow gained 306 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  We're now short term overbought but that condition can last for a while as we saw before the recent decline.  I did buy some SPY February puts today and they are showing a loss.  With only one day left for this trade it is already in the cut the loss stage.  My only hope would be a sharp decline on the open and that really isn't expected.  I should have let this trade simply pass because the timing had to spot on and there isn't any time for this trade to work.  Perhaps I was bored or just greedy or perhaps feeling invincible after making money on the previous trade.  I had an open order and thought about canceling it throughout the session.  But then is got filled and now I'm stuck with it.  Not good trading tactics here today.  GE was off a nickel on lighter volume.  I'm still considering the March calls here.  Gold was off a couple bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed but did come off of their lows for the session.  Volume was light.  Mentally I'm feeling a little tired.  A long weekend is coming up in the US as Monday is a holiday.  It looks like I'll have all that time to stew over a stupid trade.  I do expect some near term weakness but it probably won't come in time to save me.  I also believe that weakness can be bought next week for a SPY March call trade but I don't think that we'll be going to new all time highs again soon.  I could be wrong.  We do have option expiration tomorrow, so anything can happen.  But like I said, unless there is a gap down at the open, my trade is dead.  There is nobody to blame but myself.  The economic data came in mixed today and it really wasn't a factor.  The market is giving the impression that the selling is now over and it's full speed ahead again.  We'll see about that.  At this point all that I can do is wait to see what happens at the open tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.

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