Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Moving higher as the Dow gained 253 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn around. Is the decline over? At least it is for now. I would like to try the SPY February puts on any strength tomorrow but with only two days to go in the option cycle the risk is way too high. But getting the puts when we hit the 50 day moving average at about 271 would be the play. I do think that last Fridays lows need to be tested but I certainly don't know when. The summation index is heading near the zero line and that would imply that the market is about to fall apart. However I do think that we will hold up here for now. Perhaps if we see some more weakness before the end of the month, we'll get a set up for the SPY March calls. That is the next idea unless I somehow try the SPY February puts. Almost getting to short term overbought for the SPY. GE was up about 1/4 on good volume. Perhaps today was the day for the March calls but if we roll back down there will be a better opportunity in my mind. And there's still the fact that GE is a slow mover. But I do think that the idea has a chance to work. Gold rallied today on what was perceived as a strong inflation number. The precious metal futures added over $20 as the US dollar got whacked. The XAU climbed 4 1/4, while GDX gained a full point. Volume was good. We now have a bottom in the gold shares. The 200 day moving average was support for the gold shares indices. It appears weakness can be bought there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. My choices here are to try a SPY very short term put trade or wait for the SPY March calls on any weakness in the coming days. Plus the GE March calls if we see some pullback there in the near future. So there are some ideas for profit out there. The VIX is coming back down and there appears to be room to move lower there. This implies a longer term move back up in my view but I could be wrong. Regardless, I do think that a long term top is in. I'll consider whether to try the short term trade overnight. Europe and Asia were higher last night with the exception of Japan. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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