A downer to begin the holiday week as the Dow lost 395 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down.  My prognosis for an up week for Thanksgiving will obviously be wrong.  The tech wreck continues and if the NASDAQ doesn't hold up right here things will get a lot worse.  My SPY December calls are now losers.  Even though there is plenty of time for this trade, my idea was to get out on strength this week.  That plan is now in doubt.  RUT got pounded today as well and it looks like more is on the way.  It appears that rallies are to be sold.  I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow but things for the bulls are looking bleak.  GE was off about 20 cents and the volume remains heavy.  Perhaps when the tax loss selling is over in December I'll take a look at buying some shares for the long haul.  Gold was up a bit and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like we'll be heading lower here for the week.  I do not think that waiting for the G-20 summit and a resolution to the US vs. China problem to suddenly appear is the right strategy.  However that may be what I'm left with unless things turn around to the upside for the rest of the week.  The short term technical indicators are oversold but not completely blown out.  They do have room for more downside.  Perhaps I'll just take the loss tomorrow and call it a year.  It's something to ponder overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the S&P futures in tonights trade. 

More back and forth for the market on expiration Friday but the Dow did manage a gain of 124 points on pretty good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  the overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the red.  The summation index is moving up but without any conviction.  My SPY December calls are still showing a gain.  The VIX had a pretty good drop today but we didn't see the price gains that you would expect.  Not sure what that means.  RUT did finish higher and that's a plus.  The market is still trying to figure out what to do here as we have positive seasonal effects being weighed down by all the worldwide uncertainty.  It would help the bullish cause if the S&P 500 could get back above its 200 day moving average.  GE dropped more than 1/8 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold was up $7 as the US dollar dropped again.  The XAU was up over a point, while GDX gained almost 1/3.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed the GDX January call trade if we continue higher from here in the gold shares.  I'll just have to wait and see if it gets oversold again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Two days into this trade and it is going OK for now.  Next week is usually positive but you never know what headline can come out of left field over the weekend.  I suppose that could work both ways.  The question for me is whether to simply get out of this trade before the end of next week or hold it longer.  As long as the summation index continues higher I'll favor bullish outcomes.  But to really turn bullish I'd have to see the VIX get below its 200 day average and break the 15 level.  I do not think that is going to happen anytime soon.  AAPL has had a couple of up days and if that can get going to the upside it would drag tech stocks along with it.  But it hasn't happened yet.  There is room for the short term technical indicators on the S&P 500 to move up.  That's a plus.  I guess I'll have to look things over this weekend and go from there.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Today we opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal to the upside as the back and forth continues.  The Dow gained 208 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  The short term technical indicators are trying to turn around.  It appears that I was a day early for this SPY December call trade.  The position is showing a profit but I could have gotten a better strike price if I had waited a day.  But hindsight is always after the fact.  You have to go on what you see at the time.  I did think that things were going to turn back up and they have for a day.  But that doesn't mean that the decline has ended for now but I think that it has.  We'll see how things go from here.  I believe that we'll get at least a drift higher next week.  This may or may not be a trade to hold on to.  GE lost fifteen cents and the volume remains very above normal.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 1/4.  Volume was average.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've put a halt to the decline for now.  You might hear some talk of a reverse head and shoulders patterns on some indexes but what it really looks like are some complex bottoms being put in.  That is only if we continue to move up from here.  Nothing is set in concrete just yet.  However I do like the odds of things moving up from here and that is why I was willing to place the trade.  Thanksgiving week should be positive but what happens after that is anybody's guess.  If the technical indicators do in fact turn around here, the chances for a successful trade increase.  But there's plenty of time in the December option cycle and the market will go where it wants.  Asia was higher and Europe lower overnight.  Europe has plenty of uncertainty with the looming deal for Brexit overhanging the markets there.  We'll see how we close out the trading week tomorrow.

More volatility today as the Dow dropped 206 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down.  No real news for the market movement today.  It was also a one day reversal to the downside, opening higher and closing lower.  We did finish up from the lows.  My open order for the SPY December puts was not filled on the decline so I adjusted it to a higher strike price.  That order was filled, so I'm in the trade.  The technical indicators are mid-range right now.  We are oversold on one of my other technical indicators.  I may be early on this trade but I do think that it will work barring a complete collapse here.  We do have plenty of room to go lower for a retest of the recent lows though.  GE was off almost 1/3 and the volume remains very heavy.  Gold gained $10 on a flight to safety.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU rose 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/3.  Volume was good.  Perhaps the January gold share calls are a good idea after all.  But one day is not a trend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is back on the rise and there seems to be a plethora of sellers out there.  Why take on a call trade here?  I do think that the coming days are going to tell us a lot about the market.  If we continue going down from here, then things are a lot worse than I think.  If we hold up here and turn back higher, then my idea of getting some SPY calls here is going to work.  There are a lot of negatives technically to contend with here and that is not on my side for this trade.  However things do tend to get stretched both ways in the game.  A lot of what is going on now seems to be due to the decline in AAPL.  This drop won't last forever either.  I also would like to be long ahead of the Thanksgiving week and now I am.  So we'll see how this plays out in the coming sessions.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

We bounced around today but the Dow finished with a loss of 100 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but without the gusto of a week ago.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow.  I did leave in an open order for the SPY December calls.  Although the technical indicators aren't oversold, we are almost at five down days in a row for the S&P.  I also would like to try and get long here before the Thanksgiving week, which is usually positive.  There's no guarantees of course but unless the summation index turns around, I'll be feeling pretty good if this order gets filled.  We'll get CPI tomorrow and that could be a market mover.  GE found some buyers today and gained almost 2/3 on very heavy volume.  Gold was slightly lower on the futures as the US dollar lost some ground.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market is trying to figure out what to do here.  The VIX is at 20, which implies that we are still in for some big moves one way or the other in the stock market.  Like I said yesterday, some averages are about to get the kiss of death with regards to their moving averages.  That is not a long term positive.  I am however a believer in the SPY calls here for a trade of about a week or so.  A bit more decline should get the open order filled and then we'll go from there.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle and I will not be trying a November option trade with only three days left.  Things most likely will slow down next week but I believe that there will be a positive bias.  I could be wrong.  Oil is getting slammed and that could be a concern for growth going forward.  Or it may just be a product of that particular market.  We'll know as time goes on.  Asia was generally lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

The Dow got clobbered today and lost 602 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up but not by much.  The short term technical indicators have turned around and they still have plenty of room to fall.  I guess trying to get the SPY puts at the end of last week was the right idea.  But I'm not moving on to the SPY December calls.  If we continue to see weakness this week, that will be the next trade.  The small stocks were weaker today and that is indeed a negative.  We are in a seasonal period of market strength but you wouldn't know it by today price action.  The VIX also spiked again.  It did not make it below the 200 day moving average.  If it can't get below the 15 to 16 level, then I think that we will have to say that the market has changed.  So there is plenty to keep an eye on going forward.  GE continues to drop and lost around 2/3 today.  Volume remains extremely heavy to the downside.  Gold fell as the US dollar rallied to a new recent high.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 3/8.  Volume was average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls but the fundamentals here are not favorable for gold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Perhaps today begins the trip back down to retest the lows of the move down in October.  Or maybe the whole market has changed and rallies are to be sold from here on out.  Always plenty of unanswered questions in this game.  RUT and NYA are about to have their 50 day moving averages cross below their 200 day moving averages.  That's generally known as the kiss of death, with lower prices for the future.  Will these indices lead us down?  RUT is generally the trendsetter, as I have noticed before.  I certainly can't say for sure which way to go here.  However I am a believer of higher prices for the stock market going forward.  The turnaround in the summation index clearly suggests that.  Going out to the December option cycle with the extra week makes sense for me if we can see a short term oversold condition appear in the coming sessions.  The usual positive Thanksgiving time frame will be upon us next week as well.  So I'll keep an eye on things and see how it plays out this week.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  All of the players will return on Tuesday as the bond market reopens after todays holiday.  We'll see how it goes.

To the downside today as the Dow fell 201 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  We did finish well off of the worst levels for the day.  Higher producer prices were listed as the cause.  But we were short term overbought and that's what we'll pay attention to.  I never got filled on any of my SPY November put orders and it is another opportunity missed.  I believe that it's too late for this idea and now will focus on the calls.  I'm not sure that I'll be trying them next week for November but going out to December may be the way to go.  There is an extra week on the December options though and premiums are high.  GE dropped another 1/2 on extremely heavy volume.  This issue just can't seem to find a bottom.  How the mighty have fallen.  A former bellwether of the market is now just an afterthought.  Gold fell $15 on the futures as the US dollar rallied.  The XAU was off 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was a bit above average.  I'm still considering the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Frustrating is what it is here for me as I've missed another chance for gains to the downside.  It wasn't as good a set up as the former decline but it was there for the taking at least.  Now I'll have to focus on when to get long.  My take on things has been pretty good lately but the trading execution hasn't worked.  This year it seems that it's been one thing or another that has inhibited my success.  You just have to keep going in the game because the market doesn't wait for anyone.  And it certainly doesn't care.  I think that the longer term trend has moved back to being positive, with the summation index now moving up.  The seasonality factor is now in the bulls favor as well.  I'll consider what to do over the weekend but I'm favoring a longer term call trade at the moment.  We'll have the Thanksgiving holiday week coming up after expiration and that is usually positive.  Europe and Asia were lower.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A pause in the rally today but the Dow did go up 10 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 along with the NASDAQ lower.  We got the Fed statement today but it didn't seem to have much impact on the market.  I canceled my open SPY November put order and replaced it with a higher strike price.  This trade is really running out of time and todays price action didn't help matters.  The VIX has not yet penetrated its 200 day moving average.  When it does, I think we can forget about looking at the puts.  The option premiums have lost value as volatility has decreased.  It may be that we'll have to wait for the December option cycle to initiate the next trade.  The short term technical indicators remain overbought though for the S&P.  GE lost a dime on average volume.  Gold dropped a few bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX barely moved on light volume.  I am still looking at the GDX January calls.  We are not completely oversold here yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm trying to work out some kind of trade here before expiration.  If we continue lower from here into early next week, I'll switch to the SPY November calls for a short term attempt.  If we get some rally tomorrow, I might try the puts.  The timing will have to be spot on because there isn't really time to have things work out.  Perhaps staying out altogether is the best idea yet.  I'll see how tomorrow goes and take it from there.  Monday the stock market are open but it's a partial holiday elsewhere.  That will affect the volume and amount of players.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It appears that the stock market liked the election results and that might be an understatement.  The Dow soared 545 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is climbing higher.  I keep putting in open orders for the SPY November puts and adjusting them.  None have been filled yet but this seems like it isn't the right strategy here.  We are short term overbought now on some of the technical indicators.  But the market seems to be taking on a life of its own here as sellers have somehow disappeared.  The VIX is back at its 200 day moving average and we'll see what happens here.  RUT is overbought now as well but that doesn't mean it won't stay that way.  I'm going to have to reconsider what I'm doing here with the attempt at the puts overnight.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume is still high.  Oversold and staying that way here.  Gold and the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on very light volume again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So what do we do from here?  It looks like there will be no snap back to the broken declining tops line like there usually is.  It appears that a V bottom has taken place.  We are in a seasonally bullish period for stocks.  The summation index is moving higher.  The smart plays from here would have to be on the long side.  Waiting for some kind of pullback would be the prudent suggestion.  But it doesn't look like there will be one anytime soon.  I was extremely lucky that I did not get filled on my put orders yesterday because I would have gotten crushed.  At least I made the right adjustments there.  I'm sure others weren't so lucky.  I'll reconsider my overall strategy here tonight.  Seven days to go in the November option cycle, so the risk of a trade here is high.  At least the premiums have come down some.  Asia was up with the exception of Japan.  Europe rallied as well.  We'll look for some more upside follow through tomorrow.  

Another day to the plus side as the Dow added 173 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  The Dow is acting like it wants to move up regardless of the election results.  I did place an open order for some SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  There is not a good signal for the puts here yet but I do think that the market will move lower off of the election results.  But it is better to stick with the technicals.  The VIX still has room to move down and RUT was up today.  This implies further upside in the short term.  I'm still waiting for some kind of snap back to the down trend line that we broke last week.  Hasn't happened yet and perhaps we are in the midst of a V bottom.  If we do continues higher from here it will set up a short term put trade before expiration.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  Gold was off a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  It seems as though markets were in somewhat of a holding pattern ahead of the US elections.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I think that it's safe to say the bottom is in for the S&P 500.  Of course we said that last week but the price action since then confirms it in my mind.  Declines can be purchased in my humble opinion.  Whether or not we get one worth buying is the question.  We'll have to see what the reaction is to the election results is and take it from there.  There is still some room to move higher for the short term technical indicators for most of the major indices.  Patience may be a virtue at the moment.  Asia was higher and Europe a touch lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the ballot box and the markets reaction tonight. 

A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a nice gain of 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The NASDAQ had a loss for the day led by a decline in AAPL.  RUT barely moved as well.  I think we'll get some market movement after the election results tomorrow night but I could be wrong.  There isn't exactly a clear signal right now but I did place an open order today for the SPY November puts.  It wasn't filled.  I will probably try again before the close tomorrow.  The VIX is making its way into oversold territory and still has an elevated reading.  This implies that we will remain seeing triple digit gains or losses in the coming sessions.  GE was flat on the day and the volume remains pretty heavy.  Gold didn't have much of a change and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX barely moved again on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The short term technical indicators are moving higher but are not completely overbought yet.  Some of the smaller stock indicators are more mid-range than anything else.  Taking a short position here is not without risk.  Not much on the economic front this week.  I am intermediate term bullish here because the summation index was blown out to below the zero line and we have now moved back up.  Declines can be bought and there may be an opportunity to try the SPY November calls here as well before option expiration.  The put trade that I'm contemplating now is more of an election based theory than anything else.  I'll think about it some more tonight but there is a chance that I'll put it on.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.   

A pause in the bounce today as the Dow fell 109 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The jobs report was stronger than expected.  After an initial pop to the upside the market sold off.  It wasn't as bad as it has been lately and I will again have to say that the decline has ended.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to roll over but it hasn't happened yet.  I'm not exactly sure what the next trade will be.  I may simply wait for the move lower to fill the recent gap.  If that were to occur, then I could try the SPY calls.  If we continue higher form here into the Tuesday session, then I may try the SPY puts for after the election results.  I'm not exactly sure and will have to consider the possibilities over the weekend.  GE lost almost thirty cents and the volume remains extremely heavy.  Gold was off a few bucks as the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX basically finished unchanged on average volume.  Mentally I'm feeling tired.  That being the case, I do not want to attempt any trading ideas at the moment.  I'll try and get a good nights sleep and take it from there.  It was a good week for the bulls as the market stopped going down.  Today may have been the beginning of a retest of the recent lows.  If so that will set us up for the SPY November calls at some point next week.  There's still a couple of weeks left in the November option cycle.  Asia and Europe were generally higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

The Dow added another 264 points today on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around and is moving up.  I think that we can say now that the decline is over.  We may get a retest of the recent lows but that's not a given.  The action off the recent lows is all positive so far and the short term technical indicators have plenty of room to move up.  The VIX is now below 20 but I'd probably like to see it drop a bit lower before thinking about trying the SPY November puts for a short term trade.  We've got the employment report tomorrow and that could be a market mover one way or the other.  I do not expect us to simply go straight up from here.  GE was off another half and the volume remains very heavy.  Very oversold here but no end in sight to its decline.  Gold rallied over $20 as the US dollar got crushed.  The XAU gained almost three points, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was good.  The GDX daily chart pattern had a classic head and shoulders bottom breakout and then a snap back return to the neckline.  Even though I was looking for the retracement to get some GDX calls, when it happened I stayed out.  The decline back was steep and I was afraid to take the trade even though that was what I was looking for.  That was regrettable and certainly cannot be tolerated if you want to be successful.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  So where do we go from here?  The short term down trend line from the start of the recent decline has been broken.  We are getting back close to the 200 day moving averages in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ.  That would be a place where the bounce might stall.  Again, that's not a guarantee but a logical place to pause.  We should also look for an eventual drop back towards the line that we just broke through.  That will be the logical place to attempt the SPY calls.  Hopefully if all goes as planned, I'll be able to pull the trigger this time around.  I may put in an order for the SPY November puts tonight, in case we see a jump put of the box tomorrow on the jobs report.  However I may be early here as we still have room to run on the short term indicators.  If that is the case waiting until early next week ahead of the election will be the alternate plan.  We'll see if the market cooperates.  Asia was up with the exception of Japan and Europe was generally higher.  We'll see how the employment report affects things tomorrow.

We got some upside follow through for a change as the Dow rose 241 points on very heavy volume.  the advance/declines were positive.  The summation index has now stalled its downside momentum and is trying to turn around.  I think that it will but that doesn't mean that we won't see some backing and filling in the coming days.  We did finish off of our best levels of the day because at one point the Dow was up over 400.  We had a gap at the open today as well which was a positive.  We are still below the 200 day moving averages for the major stock indices.  However I'm in the bullish camp now and would be looking to purchase some SPY calls if we take a run back down towards the recent lows.  That would change though if we kept moving higher near term and created an overbought short term condition.  We certainly are nowhere near that yet.  But the decline has seemed to be putting on the brakes here.  GE was off a few cents on very heavy volume.  It managed to close above $10.  Gold was off almost $10 on the futures.  The US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU shed 1 1/8, while GDX dropped 1/4.  Volume was good.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A couple days of upside doesn't mean that we're out of the woods but lets just say the horizon is getting clearer.  The positive RSI divergences panned out and that is a plus for the technical picture.  The summation index is also now blown out in negative territory which is another reason to be positive about where we're going from here.  The odds are that the market breadth will continue to get better from here.  But the market goes where it wants.  So like I said, I'll be looking for some kind of retest of the recent lows in the SPY at 260 to establish the next call trade.  There's still over two weeks to go in the November option cycle.  The VIX is over 21, so big moves both ways are still in the cards.  Profits will go to the nimble as the volatility premium in price remains high on the option front.  For now it will be watch and wait for the next opportunity.  Europe and Asia traded higher overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings with the start of a new month ahead of the jobs report. 

A nice move higher today as the Dow climbed 431 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still moving down but is trying to turn around again.  The market has tried to carve out a bottom here and I think that it will be successful.  The positive RSI divergences have most likely worked this time around.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up.  We'll have to see if there is any follow through tomorrow but I think that at this point declines can be bought.  I think that the near term low set yesterday for SPY at 260 will hold.  Any decline back towards that number can be bought in my opinion.  A lot of the medium term indicators as well are at points where upside has taken place.  It may be too late for the November calls right now but if we get some more downside, there's a chance this trade could work.  There is still a lot of volatility premium in the November options though.  The timing has to be spot on.  GE announced its earnings along with a dividend cut today.  It sank a point on incredibly extremely high volume.  That may have washed out all the sellers as it traded below $10 a share.  Gold dropped a couple bucks as the US dollar rose.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Now the question is what do we do from here.  I'm getting bullish here because it appears we have had a washout yesterday to the downside.  If we get any sort of retest move back to the 260 level on the SPY before option expiration, that will be the time to try the calls.  If we continue to move higher form here and get short term overbought, then that would be the time to try the SPY puts.  the market rarely cooperates with what we want to do.  there is still plenty of time in the November option cycle to make something happen.  We also have potential market moving events coming forward with the employment report followed by the midterm elections.  So we will have to keep an eye on things and act appropriately.  It won't be easy but at least we have a couple ideas on how to gain some profits in the November option cycle.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong while Europe was mixed.  We'll see if the rally in the US spills over to the foreign markets overnight.  

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower.  The most watched index fell 245 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative but not as much as a down 245 market would suggest.  The summation index continues lower.  We did have a good bounce in the final half hour or things could have been worse.  I did place an open order for some SPY November calls but it wasn't filled.  I may try again tomorrow but the risk is pretty high along with the option premiums.  The VIX remains at 24 and change.  Still oversold and staying there for the short term technical indicators of the major stock averages.  We may have found a short term bottom today for stocks but we'll know more after tomorrows price action.  Although the calls here could just be a catch the falling knife attempt.  I'll consider leaving in an open order after we see where the futures are tonight.  GE was off about 1/8 and volume is still heavy.  Gold dropped $5 as the US dollar was stronger today.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on lighter volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We made it to a 10% correction in the S&P today.  Whether or not that stops the selling has yet to be seen.  RUT looks like it is trying to hammer out some kind of bottom here and that would be a plus for the bulls if it does occur.  But it hasn't happened yet.  At least stocks did come up from their lows today and the positive RSI divergences on the major index charts are still in place.  Only a couple of days left here in October so we'll have to see how things close out.  We do have economic data out this week, including the jobs report on Friday.  But in a market environment like this, none of that seems to matter.  We certainly won't stay oversold forever but the jury is still out as to when this current debacle runs its course.  I do think that perhaps now is the time to try the SPY calls for a short term trade.  I'll be checking the tone of things tonight.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

Rock and roll seems to be the name of the game now as the Dow fell 296 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  At least today we didn't close on the lows of the session but I do think that the action was sloppy at best.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  GDP came in good but it doesn't matter when we are in a market like this.  Which is why it is always a good idea to stick with the technical basis.  We're still oversold and staying that way as the decline continues.  I did place an open order for the SPY November calls but it did not come close to being filled.  This is a risky idea but I do feel at some point it will work.  I may try it again on weakness Monday.  But it would have to be short term in nature.  We've seen volume really pick up in the past few days.  What I'd like to see is a blowout downside move on heavy volume that would qualify as a washout.  Today could have been it.  But you don't want to start basing things on guessing in this game.  Another problem with trading here is the option premiums have gone through the roof due to the volatility.  Both puts and calls are expensive.  GE was down another 1/2 on heavy volume.  The gold futures were up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight gains on heavy volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The positive divergences that I've spoke of this week are still in place.  So a better move up from here is still possible.  The problem here is that there has been no sustained buying lately, just sustained selling.  I do think that everybody now recognizes that fact.  When everyone is on one side of the trade it usually pays to take the other.  That's another reason to maybe try the calls on Monday.  I'm going to have to look everything over this weekend and decide.  I was willing to try that trade today but it would have taken a much bigger drop to get my order filled.  The VIX is over 24 so any price moves will be big going forward.  But it cuts both ways.  I suppose I'll just have to evaluate where I think we're at in the next two days and try to decide if the risk is worth it.  These are some interesting times though.  Europe and Asia were both lower last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break. 

We got the bounce back today as the Dow gained 401 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues lower.  I'm inclined to believe that we will see more than a one day rally here.  There are plenty of potential positive divergences on many of the stock index charts.  I'm considering getting some SPY November calls on any weakness but would prefer to wait until Monday to attempt this idea.  It also may already be too late.  We'll have to see how it goes tomorrow.  Volatility is rampant at the moment.  But we do have what I was looking for.  A lower low in price and a higher McClellan oscillator.  Don't get me wrong.  I'm not looking for any kind of sustained rally here.  But I do think a trading move higher can occur within the next few days and may have begun today.  We'll get plenty of earnings along with GDP to digest tomorrow.  You will have to keep a close eye on the short term indicators to try and attempt anything in the current environment.  So we'll see.  GE dropped almost 2/3 on good volume.  Gold dropped a bit again today as the US dollar was up.  The XAU fell 3 1/3, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was heavy.  GDX is now back at the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern at 19.  This would be the logical spot to try the calls here but I don't think that I can bring myself to try it.  The rally we saw in the gold shares was primarily driven by the big caps gold stocks.  If the small caps led the way, then I would think that this move had staying power.  I will now most likely wait until the gold share indicators get oversold and they are not there yet.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I suppose another way to look at todays price action would be the rally out of nowhere that is consistent with down moves.  But we've already had one of those already.  The summation index is still moving down and that implies lower prices going forward.  But it won't go down forever and it is getting pretty low.  Now it could continue to go lower but I don't think by much more.  The positive divergences, if they are true, would make this the ideal time to get long some index calls.  But you don't want to fall in love with any positions because the market is still trying to find its way.  It is an interesting time.  I don't know how the GDP report tomorrow will be interpreted.  It looks like there may have been some earnings missed after the bell.  Asia was lower and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll see how the week closes out tomorrow. 

The market got slammed again today as the Dow fell 608 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  Oversold, staying that way and the expected bounce that I thought would occur certainly didn't happen.  The VIX is now over 25 and I don't think we'll stay up here forever but what do I know?  The breadth today certainly wasn't as bad as a down 600 market would imply.  But you can't argue with price and buyers have been overtaken by sellers.  It was exactly two weeks ago that we had the huge drop in stocks and I'd expect to see some follow downside through tomorrow.  But I don't expect this to go on too much longer because the technical indicators are getting pretty blown out once again.  I'm not looking for the SPY November calls right here as I was yesterday.  But if things continue to progress lower, I can make a case for them after the weekend.  GE was off 1/2 and the volume remains good.  Gold was off a bit on a higher US dollar.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/4.  Volume was lighter than it has been.  No real flight to safety for gold today.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The stock market is back in free fall mode.  We've crossed the zero line in the summation index and we're falling apart on cue.  Where can we expect to see some support for the S&P 500?  My first guess would be the 2600 level, as that has stopped the previous recent drops.  There is better support at 2500 off of some previous tops made back in 2017 but we are a long way from there.  Perhaps I'll try the SPY calls if we get down to 2600.  At the rate we're going this could happen tomorrow.  But any attempt at the calls here would be fraught with risk because we are in a pretty decent decline here and we are about to hit the 10% correction level for the S&P.  We're now below the 200 day moving average on all of the major stock indices.  There's no place to hide.  So we'll keep an eye on things overnight and go from there.  The sidelines seems to be the safest bet here at the moment.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.    

Quite a session today as the Dow fell 125 points on heavy volume.  The Dow was off over 500 points early and almost made it all the way back before dropping in the final half hour.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative and the summation index is still heading lower.  Oversold and staying that way and that is never a positive sign.  That said, the heavy volume today makes me think that a short term low is in place.  I'll be looking for higher prices near term.  We now have potential positive divergences for the S&P on the RSI and the McClellan oscillator.  Now they haven't come to fruition just yet but the potential is there.  I may look to purchase some SPY November calls on weakness tomorrow.  This would not be a long term trade but it could have a chance for a short term profit.  We had a spike in the VIX but it finished well off of its highs.  RUT and a number of the other major stock indices look to have put in daily hammers on their candlestick charts.  So we'll see.  GE was up 1/3 and the volume was good.  Gold found a flight to safety today as the futures rose eight bucks.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves up on good volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It was encouraging to see some kind of rally today even if we didn't make it back to positive territory.  Perhaps that can translate into some buying overseas because we are currently experiencing a worldwide liquidation of stock assets.  One of my indicators is flashing a buy signal for the S&P after todays price action.  Combine that with the other oversold technical indicators and you can see why it may be prudent to buy any weakness tomorrow.  Throw in the potential positive divergences that are in place and you can see that buying some calls here makes technical sense.  That doesn't mean it will work but at least there will be some things in your favor and the odds should be on your side.  I'll go over the SPY options tonight and decide what to do.  Plenty of time in the November option cycle though.  Not to mention that as long as the summation index is going lower the trend for price overall is down.  But that won't last forever and they won't ring a bell at the bottom to let you know.  Europe and Asia got clobbered overnight.  We'll see if we get any bounce tomorrow.