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Friday, July 17, 2020

A mixed bag to finish the week as the Dow fell 62 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is grinding higher.  Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 were in the black.  To me it feels as though the market is running out of stream here as the volume just hasn't been what it was.  But that could be because of the fact that we're in summer trading mode.  Most of the short term technical indicators are overbought for the major stock indices.  I'm sticking with a bearish leaning for now going forward.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains light.  Gold bounced back $15 on the August futures as the US dollar continues to drop.  The XAU gained 4 1/4, while GDX added 1 1/4.  Volume remains light here.  Any selling in the gold shares has been met by buyers.  I still like the GDX August calls on a drop despite the continuing overbought technical conditions.  Gold continues to attract money and nothing has stopped that for months.  At some point there will be a reversal but I don't see that happening anytime soon.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A bit miffed at missing out on the GDX July calls.  But we'll roll on to August.  The VIX closed below its 200 day moving average and is about to touch its lower Bollinger band.  That along with the overbought status of the market would be the logical spot to attempt the SPY August puts.  Unfortunately the premiums are very high just rolling into the August cycle which has an extra week on it.  However I am still considering it because this signal has worked at least on a short term basis for the past 3 out of 4 times.  It is something to consider over the weekend.  Next week is a light week for economic data but earnings season remains in full swing.  Ideally I'd like to let next week pass but the market doesn't usually cooperate.  We are also still at the mercy of the pandemic virus and whatever headlines come out of that.  Haven't seen the summer doldrums in the market yet.  I'll go over the charts this weekend and try to come up with some ideas for next week.  Europe and Asia were mixed to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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