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Monday, July 27, 2020

Gains to start the last week of July as the Dow rose 114 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending sideways for now.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way.  Plenty on tap this week with the Fed on Wednesday and the first look at 2nd quarter GDP on Thursday.  The S&P remains more overbought than oversold.  The Bollinger bands are also starting to contract again.  I'm still leaning towards the SPY August puts but anything could happen this week.  GE was off over 1/8 on light volume.  Gold soared to a new all time closing high as the August futures gained $35.  The US dollar is in free fall which is leading to the rally in gold.  There's no support for the dollar and no resistance for gold.  Gold is starting to go straight up and we know how that will end.  The question is when and where.  The XAU gained 7 1/2, while GDX added another two points.  Volume was good.  I'm now looking at the GDX August puts for a short term trade but the entry point is the problem here.  I don't want to step in front of this move up in GDX but I also know it won't last forever and the decline can be just as swift.  If we continue higher into the Fed meeting I may try the puts on Wednesday before the close.  Very overbought for the gold shares.  I'm also not immune to trying the GDX August calls if we do get a sharp drop between now and expiration.  So it is a pretty fluid situation for the gold shares at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and the Bollinger bands are starting to contract here as well.  Still oversold here but not extremely so.  The market is setting up for something or so it seems.  Are we going to run things up into the end of the month?  What will the Fed have to say?  I'm sure they won't be doing anything to upset the market.  Could there be an upside surprise coming out of there?  How bad will the 2nd quarter GDP look and how will the markets react to it?  Plenty of questions to be answered this week and many trading opportunities out there in my mind.  I'm not exactly sure which way I'll go but I'm certainly ready to do something.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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