Thursday, July 23, 2020
The Dow lost some ground for a change as it fell 353 points on OK volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still grinding higher. The NASDAQ led the way down today. It appears that the short term technical indicators there have now apparently rolled over. It looks like the negative RSI divergence could actually be real there for a change. We'll see if we get some follow through downside tomorrow. That would really tell the story that we're in for a pause. No new news out there today to drive things lower except that unemployment claims ticked up a little. The pandemic virus remains. I'm going to let tomorrow go by and take it from there. GE was flat and the volume was light. Gold continues to soar and is almost at an all time record. The August futures gained a dozen but did fall from their intra-day highs. The US dollar was slightly lower. The XAU lost 3 1/2, while GDX shed 3/4. Volume was average. The gold shares falling while gold itself has a nice rally is a warning sign for the bulls in my opinion. I am looking to purchase some GDX August calls on a pullback and today could be the start of that. We also have the factor of the potential drop in equities taking the gold stocks with it, if that actually occurs. So as usual the trading won't be a slam dunk. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX went higher today but still finished below its 200 day moving average. The short term indicators here are trying to turn up. We'll know more tomorrow if we see more rise in the VIX. I'm kind of stuck in the middle for right now. I'm not sure if this is just a one day pause for stocks or the beginning of something bigger. Tomorrow could have a lot to say about what's going on at the moment. My thought remains the same with regards to this week. Let it go and get ready for the Fed and the GDP first look next week. The extra week in the August option cycle gives you the luxury of taking your time for now. Asia was mixed and Europe lower overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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