Wednesday, July 29, 2020
We got the Fed out of the way and it pretty much went as expected. The Dow rose 160 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back up. No change in interest rates for a far as the eye can see. Well, they are about as low as they can go. The market was up from the start as yesterdays late day sell off was not a sign of things to come. We'll see how the market reacts to tomorrows 2nd quarter GDP report. It will be the worst on record according to forecasts. My guess is that it won't be as bad as anticipated. Stock indices remain overbought and closing in on their upper Bollinger bands. I'm considering the SPY August puts as the next trade. I do not see a rally to new all time highs for the S&P right now. I could be wrong but the macro environment in my view doesn't even support where we are right now. GE dropped 1/3 on heavy volume. Gold continues to shine as the August futures were up over ten bucks. The US dollar continues to fall with no end in sight. The XAU fell 1 1/2, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was average. The gold shares are beginning to move sideways for a much needed rest. I still like the calls here on a drop. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX continues lower and continues to be oversold. For now it is implying less volatility and more gains for stocks. I can't really argue with that. It now looks like perhaps I'll just have to let this week pass, get the end of the month over and go from there. I am tempted though to leave in an overnight order for the SPY August puts. I should not argue with price and for now things are pointing up. If we reach the upper Bollinger band in the S&P, then I'll have something to think about. I did miss an opportunity in a stock HOLX which makes tests for the pandemic virus. I was looking at the calls there but the stock kept moving up and I did not want to keep raising the strike price of the options. There also was not a lot of liquidity in the options market for this issue. Nonetheless it would have been an earnings play and they were due out today. It looks like it is moving up in the after hours market. Perhaps I'll pay better attention when the next earnings are due in three months. Or maybe the chance at a decent trade here just passed. I'm not a big fan of trading options on individual stocks but I suppose that sometimes it pays to take that chance. Food for thought. Europe and Asia were mixed last night. We'll wait and see the reaction to the GDP report tomorrow.
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