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Wednesday, July 08, 2020

The market bounced back today with a nice gain in the final hour as the Dow rose 177 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now tracking sideways.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The Bollinger bands are contracting on the S&P 500, which will most likely lead to a big move coming soon.  We are also on the verge of breaking through a declining tops line that began at the end of February.  But we haven't gotten through it yet.  We are short term overbought on the S&P, so things could go either way.  The leadership of the NASDAQ currently suggests that the move will be to the upside.  That said, I did place an open order for some SPY July puts today.  If we break through the declining trend line on good volume then I'll cancel the order.  GE was up a dime and the volume was light.  Gold continues to rally as the futures gained another ten bucks or so.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 3 2/3, while GDX gained 1 1/4.  Volume is still light here but it doesn't matter when there are no sellers.  Overbought and staying that was for the gold shares.  This obviously was a move that I should have chased a couple of weeks ago.  I do however still think that gold and the gold shares will continue to go higher.  However one of the reliable technical indicators that I use is as high as it gets for the gold shares here.  I would expect to see some sideways price action at the least in the next few days.  I will be looking to get some calls if we see a drop in GDX in the near future.  The July, August or September option contracts should prove profitable for the gold shares.  I appears to be a market that has no reason to sell.  I do not see any change in that condition anytime soon.  The precious metals also are a group that goes in extreme both up and down.  We're in the up phase there at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today and if it continues for the next day or so it will be at the 200 day moving average and the lower Bollinger band at the same time.  This is one of the reasons that I'm going to risk trying the SPY July puts before the weekend.  Now it is entirely possible that the VIX breaks down through the 200 day moving average as it rallies above the recent down trend line.  If that occurs then the SPY put trade will be taken off.  So we will perhaps have the signal to do the trade but if it fails the trade will simply have to be exited.  That is what I'm looking at right now.  With only 7 days left in the July option cycle, obviously the risk is high.  So we'll see how it goes.  Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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