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Tuesday, July 14, 2020

Today we opened lower and closed higher for a one day reversal back to the upside.  The Dow led the way and climbed 556 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending lower but trying to turn around here once again.  I guess we're still waiting to see which way things will go here, with a big move projected by the contracting Bollinger bands.  I did sell my SPY July puts but could have done much better on the exit.  I simply put in a stop loss order as prices moved around this morning and eventually it was hit.  The gain was 150% but could have been much better if I just gotten out earlier.  My thinking was that yesterday could have been the beginning of a huge move lower.  It wasn't for now.  However with the Dow leading the way here, that is usually the characteristic of it being late in the rally.  GE was up over 1/8 and the volume remains light.  Gold was up around eight bucks on the August futures after being lower early.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The gold shares shined with the XAU gaining over 5 3/4, while GDX added 1 1/2.  Volume remains light here.  I am considering getting some GDX July calls with only 3 days to go in this option cycle.  The short term indicators are turning back up and this has happened the past few times during expiration week.  Obviously the ideal time to buy them was this morning but I was too busy with the SPY trade.  Just was not quick enough to recognize the opportunity.  However it may still be there if we see some weakness in the gold shares early tomorrow morning.  It's something that I'm thinking about but the risk would be even higher than the last trade.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit frustrated again.  I really should have just dumped the SPY puts early this morning.  When the market is dropping the option prices change very fast and I was not up to the task.  Had I been able to do that I could have rolled over to trade the GDX calls.  The VIX turned around today and appears to be heading back down to the 200 day moving average and the lower Bollinger band.  We'll see how that plays itself out.  Otherwise I am also looking at the GDX August calls as a possible next trade but the options are pricey with an extra week in them.  So far July has not played out as I had though with no summer doldrums slow down so far.  At any rate we're still on the lookout for some kind of big trending move coming soon.  Asia was lower and Europe generally lower overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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