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Tuesday, July 07, 2020

Well the market didn't wait until tomorrow as the Dow fell 396 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index back down after just turning up.  The Dow was the weakest of the major indices.  We were short term overbought and now that condition has been somewhat relieved for now.  Todays drop makes getting the puts down the road this week that much harder.  I still like that idea but with little time remaining in the July option cycle, any trade in the SPY from here is fraught with risk.  I'll be keeping a close eye on things but it may be that the put trade opportunity has passed.  GE was off 1/4 on light volume.  Gold continues its climb higher as the August futures were up $15 and closed above the $1800 level.  The US dollar was higher as well.  Not sure if it's a flight to safety but we'll know in the coming days.  The XAU gained 3 1/4, while GDX added 7/8.  Volume was light and the gold shares remain overbought.  I should have chased this move earlier but I'm going to try and chase it now.  I have an open order in for some GDX July calls.  This probably isn't the smartest thing in the world to do but maybe if we get a pullback the order can get filled.  Not a lot of sellers for gold or the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  The VIX was higher today and the short term technical indicators have already turned back up.  My hope is that they roll back down which would get me a chance to try the SPY July puts.  If not then we'll simply just move lower from here and the put trade for July will have been missed.  The game can get frustrating at times.  If the market does continue to head lower from here perhaps the GDX July call trade will get filled.  So I've got a couple of ideas out there with eight days to go in the July option cycle.  The market hasn't hit the summer doldrums as of yet.  The background of the pandemic virus remains the same.  Asia was lower with the exception of China which has taken off to the upside.  Europe was down.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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