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Wednesday, July 15, 2020

We had a gap to the upside today as the Dow tacked on another 227 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  This should turn the summation index back up.  We have now moved above the declining tops line form February in the S&P.  The volume hasn't exactly been great but you can't argue with price.  It now appears that the big forecast move in the market could be higher.  That certainly wasn't what I expected but it is not a good idea to argue with the market.  We'll know more as the week progresses as to whether the rise is expiration week related or the start of a summer rally.  Some of the big cap tech stocks are starting to get tired and that could provide some headwinds to whatever rise that occurs.  Of course we could be down hard tomorrow and that would change the picture.  GE was up 1/4 on better volume.  Gold was slightly higher and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  I did not attempt the GDX July calls today but it looks like that idea would have worked with a proper entry.  We'll have to see how the rest of the week plays out.  I am still looking at the GDX August calls as potentially the next trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower today as we're heading back down to the 200 day moving average and the lower Bollinger band.  That has been the spot to try the SPY puts but with only two days left in the July option cycle I think the prudent course of action would be inaction.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  But I probably should just be thankful for whatever I got out of Mondays trade and move on.  Even though that trade wasn't managed properly again at least it showed a profit.  We're in earnings season and I am looking at specific stocks to potentially trade the options in.  I have yet to find something that looks promising though and it is out of my normal comfort zone of trading the indexes.  Risk of course is higher with just one stock because there are a multitude of things that can go wrong there.  But I am looking.  Europe and Asia were higher last night.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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