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Wednesday, July 22, 2020

The market continues to move higher as the Dow gained 165 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  The Dow led the way today.  All the major stock indices are overbought with no end to the rally in sight.  Perhaps we'll see a run up until the end of July before something else happens in August.  Or maybe the market will just keep going higher.  We certainly aren't paying attention to the underlying economic conditions as the pandemic virus continues to drive the economy.  There's simply plenty of money around looking for a home.  With another US stimulus package on the horizon it appears long is the only way to go.  GE was up a couple cents on average volume.  Gold is now moving straight up along with silver.  The August gold futures rose $24 as the US dollar was lower once again.  The XAU gained 3 1/3, while GDX climbed over 3/4.  Volume was average.  It is too late to chase the August calls here for now.  If we see a drop back to the up trend line then I might try the calls here.  GDX is overbought on the short and medium term timeframes.  I do think that gold is on its way to a new all time high but do not want to chase the gold shares here.  The ideal time to purchase the August GDX calls has obviously passed.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and the movement downwards here supports the ongoing rally.  The character of this indicators has changed and we will have to change with it.  The stock markets are in rally mode and the only way to trade it is from the long side regardless of what you might think or think you see.  There may be a time in the August option cycle for the SPY puts but that time is not now.  I'm still in the camp of letting this week pass and taking it from there.  We'll see.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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