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Thursday, July 16, 2020

The day started with a gap lower and we simply traded sideways for the rest of the session.  The Dow fell 135 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index did turn around an is now trending higher.  The economic data was a bit better than expected today.  The pandemic virus has not gone away.  Hard for me to say what's driving things here.  The S&P is still short term overbought and we have options expiration tomorrow.  I suppose I'm still in the camp for a negative resolution to what is going on in the equity markets.  There seems to be plenty of liquidity still but the volume hasn't been all that heavy lately.  I'm guessing that between now and the August expiration that we'll see a sustained down trend.  GE was off almost a dime but the volume was very light.  Gold dropped $18 on the August futures and closed below $1800.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 2 points, while GDX shed over 1/2.  Volume was very light here.  The plus is that the gold shares did not fare as badly as the metal itself although they still remain overbought.  I am looking at the GDX August calls as the next trade unless there is a good signal for SPY.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX didn't do much today and is still above its 200 day moving average.  It is getting back to oversold on a short term basis.  The problem with trading from here is the extended premiums in the August cycle due to the extra week in them.  It behooves you to be patient for now but if a decent signal appears you have to be prepared to pay more than you want to enter a trade.  My guess is that volatility is going to ramp up here soon and that will increase the option premiums as well.  Hasn't happened yet and I am wrong with my prognosis about as much as I am right.  For now I'll let tomorrow pass and then take it from there.  Europe and Asia were both down in last nights trade.  We'll see how the options expiration Friday goes tomorrow. 

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