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Thursday, July 09, 2020

The Dow fell 361 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower.  The overall market fared better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ sporting a gain.  The markets were much lower in the morning but managed to come back.  My open order for the SPY July puts was not filled.  I'm now wondering if perhaps the market is preparing to take off to the upside.  It has had plenty of chances to sell off here and keeps coming back.  We are still overbought though.  One thing for sure is that the Bollinger bands are really pinching together and that implies something big on the horizon.  Which way is the question.  Six days left in the July option cycle so the risk is high.  But the potential to make a lot in a little time is out there.  GE was off 1/4 and the volume remains light.  Gold took a breather as the futures shed almost ten bucks.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on what passes now as average volume.  They finished well off of their lows for the session.  I'm considering trying the calls here again before the July expiration as well.  However I may have missed that opportunity today as I have for the past two weeks.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX touched its 200 day moving average again before finishing higher for the day.  The short term technical indicators here are not completely oversold anymore but they are far from overbought.  The down trend line resistance for the S&P is still intact.  An upside breakout there on good volume will change my short term bearish outlook here.  But that hasn't happened yet.  We are approaching options expiration week which usually has an upside bias.  The summation index is pointing down though and that shouldn't be ignored.  We also have the NASDAQ still leading the way higher and that is positive sign.  Mixed messages to be sure but one side will eventually take control.  I'll consider my options tonight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower yesterday.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

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