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Monday, July 06, 2020

The rally continues to begin the week as the Dow climbed 460 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  This should put the summation index back to moving higher.  Tech is leading the way and the NASDAQ is outperforming.  Short term overbought now for the major indices.  I am looking at the SPY July puts but think that probably Wednesday is the ideal time to purchase them if the rally continues.  Markets around the world are seeing big gains as liquidity beats all else for now.  The pandemic virus hasn't gone away and seems to be taking on a second life.  But you can't argue with price and it's moving up.  We'll have to see how the upcoming earnings season affects things going forward.  For now it's simply up, up and away.  GE was up 18 cents and the volume was light.  Not a lot of interest in owning this stock.  Gold continues its run higher, the August futures gained another five bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU added 2 1/2, while GDX rose 2/3.  Volume was light.  Overbought on the gold shares to be sure but there are no sellers at this point.  Less than 2 weeks to go in the July option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK after the long holiday weekend.  The VIX almost touched the lower Bollinger band today and actually finished a bit higher despite a decent rally.  Oversold to be sure and closed back above its 200 day moving average.  Would love to see it basically move sideways for a couple of days to try the SPY July puts.  I had plenty of time over the weekend to go over things.  The volume lately has been lacking.  I don't know if that's just a summer excuse or we're setting ourselves up for something lower in the near term.  I'm going with the latter.  There is also a chance that we could see a blow off top here for the July option cycle.  That would render trying the index puts useless.  I'm going to try and give this rally another day and if it keeps up, I'll definitely be looking at the puts.  The volume for the gold shares has been weak as well but they are on the cusp of setting a new recovery high.  Remaining overbought there again as well but that is the case during rallies.  If the market does drop later this week it may also take these shares with it.  That may present an opportunity to try the longer term calls there going out to August.  As always the market will do what it wants and rarely cooperates with the best laid plans.  Europe and Asia rallied overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  

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