Thursday, July 02, 2020
The Dow gained 92 points to finish the holiday shortened week on lighter volume. The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is now trying to turn around and has stopped falling for now. The employment report came in better than expected and we had a gap up at the open. Selling started a half hour later followed by sideways movement. The market then dropped in the final hour. The Dow was up well over 400 points during the session. I'm considering getting some SPY July puts towards the end of next week if the market cooperates. GE was up 8 cents and the volume was light. Gold was up $9 on the futures after a mild early sell off. The US dollar was little changed. The XAU lost 1 5/8, while GDX shed 3/8. Volume was light. I did place an overnight order for some GDX July calls but canceled it during the session. I do still like the idea of getting some gold share calls at some point in the near future. But this group does remain short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower and did manage to make it down to touch the 200 day moving average. I did not buy the SPY puts though. I would like to see it go down there again and have it hit the lower Bollinger band as well. That could occur at some point next week and that would be the ideal time to try the SPY July puts. We'll wait and see if it happens. Despite todays gains the price action was not exactly bullish. The S&P 500 is getting to the short term overbought condition and the volume on this rise has been anemic. So the elements of putting on a SPY put trade are present. It is just a matter of the timing next week. There will be an extra day to plot the strategy over this longer weekend with the July 4th holiday. I'll be taking a closer look at eh gold shares as well. There will be exactly two weeks left in the July option cycle. Europe and Asia were both higher in last nights trade. It's Thursday afternoon in the summer. Time for a break.
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