Wednesday, July 01, 2020
A mixed bag to begin the month of July as the Dow dropped 78 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is still moving lower. The overall market fared better than the Dow, with both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ in the green. The economic data today was mixed and the jobs report is due out tomorrow. The short term technical indicators have turned up for the S&P. Tomorrow could just end up being a light volume affair as the markets are closed on Friday for a long summer holiday weekend. I'm still on the sidelines with regards to the SPY. GE was off a dime and the volume was good. Gold sold off early but then made a comeback. The futures lost over $15. The US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses after being much lower early on. Volume here remains on the light side. I did consider putting in an open order for the GDX July calls overnight but did not. Probably should have and may consider it again tonight. All declines are being bought in the gold shares and that is pretty positive price action. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX continued lower today and is getting more oversold. It's at 28 and change, with the 200 day moving average at 26. If it does get to 26, I'll be trying the SPY July puts. That is the plan at the moment. The light volume levitation that we're seeing in the stock market this week isn't that inspiring. Ideally I'd like to see another light volume move higher tomorrow to set up getting the SPY puts at the beginning of next week. The market rarely cooperates. Gold itself now has a bearish dark cloud cover daily candlestick on the chart. We'll see what transpires tomorrow. The gold shares held up well today and that's a plus for the bulls. But we are short term overbought there. I suppose we'll wait and see the markets reaction to the employment report and take it from there. But like I stated earlier this could be a muted effort from the market due to the long holiday weekend. Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower in last nights trade. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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