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Tuesday, June 30, 2020

We had a splurge of buying at the end of the month and the Dow closed higher by 217 points on OK volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is heading lower but is trying to turn around.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Nothing new from the Fed chairman today and the economic data was a little better than expected. The NASDAQ is leading the way higher here so perhaps the two day rally will have legs.  The volume is a concern as it hasn't exactly been heavy while moving up.  That could just be a factor of the summer season though.  The pandemic virus isn't going away anytime soon either.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold continues to outperform as the August futures hit $1800 today.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU gained almost 4 1/2, while GDX rose 1 1/8.  Volume was almost average.  Short term overbought now for the gold shares and I may try the GDX July calls on a pullback.  Volume has been weak here but there are not a lot of sellers on declines.  This looks like a move that I should have chased when it began with the breaking of the short term down trend line about a week and a half ago.  Hindsight is never wrong.  Perhaps if gold stalls at $1800 I'll get a chance.  But it is too risky just to buy some of the calls here with the indicators so overbought.  A little over two weeks left in the July option cycle.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is comfortably below its 50 day moving average and the indicators are reaching the oversold zone.  The 200 day moving average here stopped the previous rally recently and I'll look to that again if it gets down there.  Combine that with the oversold technical reading and we have the opportunity for the next SPY trade.  We're at least a few days form that happening, if it does.  But it's something to watch out for.  The S&P 500 did bounce off of its 200 day moving average and has acted better in the past couple of sessions.  We'll wait and see where tings go from here.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how July starts out tomorrow.  

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