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Friday, June 26, 2020

Back and forth we go so today was to the downside as the Dow fell 730 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were around 5 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving down.  We'll take our cues from there.  The economic data was a bit better than expected but the pandemic virus fears are taking over the narrative.  States that reopened are pulling back and more cases are being reported.  The S&P 500 is oversold but not completely so.  The weekly chart is still overbought so we could be in for a long slog over the summer.  I'm still hoping for summer doldrums but my ideas have been pretty off lately.  GE was off a bout twenty cents and the volume was average.  Short term oversold here and staying that way.  Gold sold off early but then came roaring back to a gain of almost $10.  The US dollar was little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains to the upside on light volume.  Once again the gold shares are underperforming the precious metal and that isn't exactly bullish going forward.  I am still trying not to chase things here but I do think that the gold share calls are still a good idea.  If GDX can work off its overbought condition I'd be willing to give them a try.  GDX is both short and medium term overbought here though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was higher and is back above its 50 day moving average.  I have not been able to correctly read this indicator for weeks.  I suppose as long as it stays above its 200 day moving average, the odds favor more volatility.  That's my best guess at the moment but using the VIX to time the SPY trades has been futile for me lately.  The S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average to finish the week and looks like it wants to go lower.  The short term indicators aren't completely oversold yet.  We've got two days left in the month and quarter so we will see how the money managers want to sort things out.  The extra heavy volume today says to me that perhaps they did what they were going to do today and will be taking a nice long holiday week next week.  If that's the case the volume should be pretty light going forward.  We'll see.  I'll be going over the charts this weekend in hopes of finding something worthwhile but I get the feeling that I'll be remaining on the sidelines for now.  Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest. 

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