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Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Still bouncing back as the Dow climbed 526 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up.  The retail sales data was much better than expected and there were no surprises from the Fed testimony.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have turned back up.  That doesn't necessarily mean that it's clear sailing from here but at least we did not see any follow through downside that lasted from Thursdays collapse.  It is options expiration week and that could lend to the positive skew as well.  More Fed testimony tomorrow but if today is any indication it will be a non event.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was slightly higher on the futures.  The US dollar finished higher as well.  The gold shares did not.  The XAU lost 3 1/8, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was average.  My GDX June calls are solid losers with only three days to go.  Barring a miracle, this trade will go down as another mistake.  Once again the entry was ill timed and the gold shares have no interest at the moment.  The only positive here is that I didn't buy more at a lower price, which I seriously considered.  But that is one rule that cannot be broken.  Never throw good money after bad.  Never try to average down your losing trades.  At least my brain held fast to these maxims.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is right at its 50 day moving average and the short term indicators are mid-range.  I am not inclined to attempt any SPY trades this week.  I think I will book the loss in the GDX call trade and go from there.  Summer is on the way and I'll have to try and wait for a decent set up before trying the next trading idea.  I do still like the gold share calls at some point as a sideways trading range in gold continues.  The breakout will certainly be worth a look and I believe that it will be to the upside.  But we're evidently not there yet.  Japan ordered up even more stimulus overnight and the Asia markets soared.  Europe was higher as well.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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