Monday, June 08, 2020
The rally just keeps on going as the Dow gained 461 points on extremely heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 5 to 1 positive. The summation index continues to the upside. The Dow was once again stronger than the overall market. The NASDAQ hit a new all time closing high. There are no sellers. Despite remaining short term overbought, the market is powering higher. Price and volume indicate that we are simply going to continue to go up. My guess is that we'll take it as high as it can go into the June option expiration. We've got the Fed announcement on Wednesday and even that won't stop this bull run regardless of what is said. We did get a V shaped recovery in the stock market despite the pandemic virus and the rioting. The economy is still another story for now. GE was up over 1/2 and the volume was heavy. Gold held the lower end of the trading range as the futures gained over twenty bucks. The US dollar was lower. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on very light volume. Once again gold has risen pretty good and the gold shares are lagging. The just isn't any interest in owning the gold shares at this time. That said, I did place an open order for the GDX June calls again after looking thins over this weekend. I canceled it during todays session. I was intent on staying on the sidelines but the gold shares have some pretty good support here. I may try this again if we see some weakness before the Fed announcement. However there is even stronger support for GDX at the 30 level. If it can make its way there I will be buying some GDX calls. The only question would be what month to go out to. Also if I do attempt the GDX June calls again it would have to be a very short term trade. The lack of volume is not a positive sign. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX rose today despite a decent rally in the stock market. Perhaps we'll even see more short squeezing as the week goes on. All of the major broad indexes are now back above their 200 day moving averages. The small stocks have led the way up and are hitting new all time highs. Is that in the cards for the S&P? It would seem so. The decline following the beginning of the pandemic virus seems to be a one off. A black swan event that is being quickly put in the rear view mirror despite the fact that it hasn't left. No one knows what the future holds but it seems like stocks will continue to simply move higher. I suppose all that money that the Fed has thrown out there is finding a home in equities. That's the way it seems for now at least. Asia was higher and Europe lower to start the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.
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