Thursday, June 11, 2020
The market got clobbered today as the Dow had a gap down at the open and just kept on going. It fell 1862 points on very heavy volume as it was a rush to the exits. The advance/declines were over 30 to 1 negative. That in itself is amazing. The summation index turned around and is now heading lower. Fear of the virus coming back along with a not so rosy view of the economic comeback were the excuses. But it was really just a market panic attack. My prognosis of the rally continuing into option expiration next week was wrong. My take on the markets hasn't exactly been on target lately. Now we'll look to where support could be for the S&P. 2900 looks like the first stop from the previous consolidation. The 50 day moving average is near there as well. We closed at the 200 day moving average today but I think we'll see some follow through selling tomorrow. Not short term oversold yet for stocks. GE was off 2/3 and the volume was pretty good. Gold fell a dozen as things had to be sold to cover margin calls. The US dollar was up on the flight to safety. The gold shares fell with the market. The XAU dropped 7 1/2, while GDX fell 1 2/3. Volume was good. I did place an overnight order for some GDX June calls again. It was filled and is showing a loss. I am considering buying some more tomorrow. I do think that the flight to safety trade will be back in play and the gold shares will rise from here. GDX did close on its 50 day moving average which has held things up here in the short term. There is always the chance that things will simply collapse from here and that is the risk that I'll be taking if I do purchase some more. The short term technical indicators are mid-range for the gold shares so yes, things could go either way. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX took off today and closed at the 40 level. The short term indicators here are almost overbought. Should get there tomorrow with downside follow through for stocks. Just when I had been preaching that I don't see any major downside for the market, the Dow drops almost 7%. Like I said my views aren't exactly in line with what's going on at the moment. That's also a clue that maybe I should simply head to the sidelines until things calm down and I have a better read on what's going on. That said, I'll see how gold does overnight and decide what to do from there. Interesting times. Europe and Asia got whacked overnight as well. We'll see how the week finishes tomorrow.
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