Thursday, June 04, 2020
The Market bounced around today ahead of Fridays employment report. The Dow finished with a gain of 11 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were barely positive. The summation index continues higher. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P lower. It appears that today may have been the time to try the June SPY puts, if only for a short term trade based on the reaction to tomorrows data. Stock indexes remain short term overbought. We are in rally mode though but I cannot predict what the numbers will be tomorrow or the markets reaction to them. GE was up over 1/3 and the volume remains good. Gold bounced off of the bottom of the trend channel. The futures rose $20 on the August contract. The US dollar continues to decline as well. However the gold shares are not taking part in any upside this time around. And that is a problem for my GDX June call trade. The XAU added 1 1/8, while GDX was up only 1/4. Volume remain very light as there is no interest in owning the gold shares here. The gold shares do remain short term oversold but without any buyers it will probably just remain that way. My GDX June calls are now solid losers. It would take quite a rally from here to turn things around and I don't see that happening. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower during the session. It did manage to touch its 200 day moving average and almost touched the lower Bollinger band. That may be close enough to initiate a rise in the VIX and a decline in the market. It did work that way today and we'll see if we get any follow through to the downside tomorrow. Interest rates have begun to rise as it appears that bonds are being sold to buy stocks. With that activity in place it would be hard to envision a sustained decline from here for the stock indices. We'll see how the market reacts to the data tomorrow and go from there. Asia was generally higher, with Europe mixed in last nights trade. We'll close out the first week in June tomorrow.
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