Wednesday, June 24, 2020
Perhaps today was the big move that the McClellan oscillator was projecting as the Dow fell 710 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. This should turn the summation index down. Back to pandemic virus fears as the economic calendar was quiet. The short term technical indicators have now rolled back over for the major stock indices. I'm not sure if this is just another one day affair or the start of something meaningful to the downside. I think that we'll find out soon enough. There is now more testing for the virus than before, so of course there will be more cases. The reopening of states also ensures that more people will be in contact with each other. So it shouldn't be a surprise that the number of cases is going up. Perhaps the market knows something else that we don't. GE was off 1/2 and volume was good. Gold was off eight bucks on the August futures as it took a breather from recent gains. The US dollar was up on a flight to safety. The XAU fell 2 2/3, while GDX shed almost 2/3. Volume was average. I'm still debating on whether or not to chase this move in the gold shares. However we're more overbought than oversold the moment so perhaps the sidelines remains the best strategy at this time. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a pop up today but did finish well below its best level for the day. I don't know if that means the decline is over or if it gives the VIX more room to run to the upside. A guessing game isn't really what we're looking for. The TRAN looks like it wants to challenge the up trend line that has been in effect since March along with its lower Bollinger band. This is something to keep an eye on. There are also potential negative divergences in the RSI indicators for the NASDAQ, QQQ and NDX. If we continue lower from here they won't just be potential. Again, it's something to keep an eye on. We'll get plenty of economic data to mull over tomorrow including a revised GDP number. So maybe the pandemic virus fears will take a back seat for a day. I guess the sleepy summer scenario that I envisioned isn't happening this week. Asia was mixed while Europe took a big hit lower. We'll see how things go tonight.
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