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Tuesday, June 09, 2020

Finally some profit taking at least as the Dow fell 300 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving higher.  The overall market did better than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a small gain.  No real news to speak of, we're just waiting to get the Fed out of the way tomorrow.  The market isn't expecting any surprises tomorrow but you never know.  The underlying conditions of the pandemic virus and the staggered restart of the economy persist.  The looting in major cities has calmed down.  The major indices remain short term overbought despite the drop today.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was pretty good.  Gold continued to bounce back with the futures up $15.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX added 1/4.  Volume was very light once again.  There is no conviction in this bounce back for the gold shares.  Plus it isn't really much of a bounce considering the progress that gold itself has made.  Still short term oversold for the gold shares but the indicators have turned back up.  I'm staying on the sidelines here for now.  But a return back down to the 30-31 level would get me very interested in getting some GDX calls for the longer term.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired.  The VIX continued to rise today as it found near term support at its 200 day moving average.  The technical indicators here have turned back up.  I'm not thinking that a major decline is coming here but what do I know?  We do know that the trend for stocks right now is up.  I can also say that we're starting to see some extreme overbought readings from some of the indicators.  Despite the drop today, momentum remains to the upside.  We'll see how the market reacts to the Fed but I do not think it will be a selling spree.  I don't really have any solid trading ideas here despite a week and half to go in the June option cycle.  I'll see what I can come up with overnight.  Asia was mixed with Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow.

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