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Friday, June 12, 2020

The market stabilized today after yesterdays debacle.  The Dow gained 350 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now heading sideways.  We had a huge gap to the upside to start the session and then traded sideways for the rest of the day.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn around and the 200 day moving average has held things for now.  There is a chance that Thursdays price action was just a one day wonder but the technical damage cannot be overlooked.  The up trend line that had been in place since the March lows was broken.  I think that sideways is the most we can hope for now if you're bullish.  We are also about to head into summertime, which should mean a slower time for stocks.  GE was up around 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was slightly higher on the futures and the US dollar was up as well.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Once again the gold shares are underperforming gold itself and that is not a good sign for my GDX June calls.  They are solid losers now with just a week to go.  The short term technical indicators for GDX are below mid-range.  Things could go either way next week but the weekly candlestick chart here looks bearish.  This looks like another ill timed trading idea as the entry price wasn't good.  At this point it looks like another losing trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX came back down today and the short term indicators are trying to roll over.  That doesn't mean we won't see another pop to the downside next week but it does mean that we did not see any follow through to yesterdays spike up in the VIX.  I still think that the S&P 500 could head down to support at the 2900 level in the coming days.  One thing for sure is that the upside euphoria in the stock market is gone.  I would not be surprised if this summer is a long and drawn out boring affair.  The pandemic virus is still here along with an economy that isn't back to full strength.  Partial re-openings of businesses seem to be the norm for now.  The Fed is throwing all the money it can at the problem and that should keep things propped up for now.  But corporate profits cannot be expected to be what they were.  We'll have to see what the market has to say about that.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed to finish the trading week.  I'll be checking the charts as usual over the weekend.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

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