Thursday, June 25, 2020
It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower but finished with a nice gain of 300 points on good volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still moving down. The economic data was in line with estimates and perhaps just a tad better. The pandemic virus still looms. The S&P 500 has held its 200 day moving average for now. The short term technical indicators are still in the mid-range area. No SPY trades in mind at the moment. GE was up over 1/8 on light volume. Gold finished flat on the session and the US dollar was slightly higher. The XAU rose 1 1/4, while GDX was up about 1/4. Volume was extremely light. I will certainly try to wait for the short term technical indicators for GDX to become oversold before attempting the calls here again. That could take some time from here. There's no rush as the July option cycle has plenty of time left and I'm considering going out another month anyway. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a long dark candlestick on its daily chart today and looks like it wants to go lower. That would support a near term rally heading into a July 4th holiday week. Hasn't happened yet as this indicator has been hovering around its 50 day moving average for the past couple of weeks. What looked like negative divergences yesterday in the small stock indices remain. If we move to new highs from here they will be negated. Volume is lighter today and that's always a concern. However it may just be the fact that we've gone into summer mode with less players expected. We'll see if the lack of interest continues. We're also coming up on the end of the month and quarter on Tuesday. That could skew prices. I'm remaining on the sidelines for now as I don't see any decent trading signals for what I'm looking at. Asia lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.
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