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Wednesday, June 10, 2020

Another mixed bag as the Dow fell 282 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The Fed had no changes to what was already expected to be said.  The market fluctuated after the announcement, moving higher but then falling back as it did from the beginning of the day.  Again, I don't believe this to be the start of some extended downside reversal.  Most likely it's just more profit taking after a huge run higher.  The NASDAQ closed higher yet again.  The major stock indices remain short term overbought.  GE was off 3/8 and the volume was good.  Gold rallied on the Fed with the futures gaining over twenty bucks.  The US dollar continues lower.  The gold shares came to life today.  The XAU rose 5 1/3, while GDX gained 1 1/2.  Volume was good to the upside.  I did place an order for some GDX June calls after the move had begun but it wasn't filled.  I may try and chase this move higher tomorrow.  The XAU has broken the short term down trend line of the past month.  GDX appears to be ready to do the same.  I am obviously late with this trade but I do think that it could work.  The short term technical indicators for GDX have turned up and are not overbought yet.  I think that the loss I took from the previous trade affected my outlook for a while.  The set up for the calls in gold and the gold shares was there again but I did not act.  Another thing that is affecting my view is that the previous calls that I sold for a loss have now come back and are almost at breakeven.  As much as I say that you have to move on in the game, I'm also looking back at times too.  I'm going to have to figure out tonight if this is a move that I feel like chasing.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX finished unchanged despite a drop in the market.  It looks to me like this indicator is ready to move lower and that would support a near term rise in prices.  The Fed today had no changes in policy and money continues to be out there for whoever wants it.  With that backdrop it is hard to see any kind of sustained decline for stocks in the near future.  I'm still thinking that stocks will be trending higher into the option expiration at the end of next week.  Overbought and staying that way for now.  I'll reconsider the GDX June calls tonight.  Asia higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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