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Friday, June 05, 2020

Instead of showing a loss of jobs for May the employment report surprised everybody with a gain of 2 1/2 million jobs and the market took off.  The Dow soared 829 points on extremely heavy volume.  The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  The Dow remains stronger than the overall market but some of the over the counter indices hit new all time highs.  Whatever ideas that I had about the SPY June puts were wrong.  The trend remains up despite being very overbought.  Markets can sometimes and will stay overbought longer than you think they can.  We are in one of those situations right now.  It would not be a surprise to see prices continue to run up into the option expiration in two weeks.  Stay long or be wrong seems to be the motto at the moment.  GE was up about 1/8 on very heavy volume but did finish well off of its highs.  Gold got clobbered on the good employment news.  The futures lost $35 and were even lower than that during the session.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/2, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was good for a change.  The gold shares were lower earlier in the day but made back ground as the day moved on.  GDX has now come all the way back to the break out level and that is where you would expect things to hold.  They have for now.  Gold is also at the low end of the recent trading range and cannot fall any further or the range will be broken to the downside.  I'm not sure if things for the precious metal complex are going to hold up here.  The gold shares did stage a decent comeback from the lows today and are short term oversold.  However the weekly charts have a lot more room to go lower before support kicks in.  I dumped the GDX June calls that I had for an 80% loss.  This trade collapsed right in front of me from a small profit on Monday to todays sharp decline.  I did have a chance to get out in the middle of the week when I noticed things going south but decided to wait until todays jobs report.  Obviously it wasn't worth the wait.  Looks like I'll be heading to the sidelines.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX touched its lower Bollinger band today and is at its 200 day moving average.  It remains oversold as well.  I haven't been reading this indicator with any success lately.  Most of the major stock indexes remain in solid up trends since their breakouts from their congestion zones.  The summation index is moving higher.  Despite the overbought condition of the market, stocks are finding buyers.  Liquidity is king.  Two weeks left in the June option cycle.  I'll look things over in hopes of maybe finding a trade this weekend but most likely after the recent losing idea I'll be gun shy.  Confidence or the lack of is an important part of the game.  Right now for me it's back to the drawing board.  Europe and Asia were higher to close out the trading week.  There's plenty of money to go around the world for now.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

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