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Wednesday, June 03, 2020

The Dow continues its march higher as it gained 527 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving up.  Once again the Dow was stronger than the overall market.  The economic data out today wasn't as bad as expected.  We remain short term overbought but in rallies like the one we're in it usually doesn't matter.  The TRAN had a good day as well.  The S&P 500 is firmly above its 200 day moving average.  The trend is up until proven otherwise.  GE was up almost 1/3 and the volume remains good.  Gold took it on the chin as the futures dropped over $30.  The US dollar continues lower as well but gold could not find buyers.  Gold futures are now at the near term support that has held for the past two months.  A break lower here will change the picture for gold going forward.  The XAU dropped 3 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/4.  Volume was average.  My GDX June calls are now solid losers and I'm afraid that they won't be coming back.  I should have acted on the light volume rally that got them to a small gain and gotten out.  If not on Mondays light rally, then yesterday after a very bearish daily candlestick pattern appeared.  That would have at least led to just a small loss.  At this point I'll simply see if gold holds up for the rest of the week and go from there.  GDX isn't completely oversold on the short term indicators, so I fear there will be more near term downside to come.  The stock market rally has taken away the safe haven buying that we saw earlier.  As usual, I'm far too late in the recognition of that.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was lower and is just about to hit the lower Bollinger band along with its 200 day moving average.  Combine that with the short term overbought condition of the S&P and tomorrow could be the ideal set up for some SPY June puts ahead of the jobs report.  That would seem to be the next logical trade for me.  However being stuck in the losing GDX trade has shaken my mental capital.  Obviously confidence for me isn't exactly flowing at the moment.  So we'll have to wait and see.  Perhaps strength tomorrow can be sold.  I'll take a look at the SPY June puts tonight but I can't be sure that I'll be able to take on some more risk here.  We are also still in the rally phase from a true breakout of the recent consolidation.  That could end up going a lot farther than you think.  I'll look it all over tonight and go from there.  Europe and Asia continued to rally last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

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