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Monday, June 15, 2020

The Dow was up 157 points today on heavy volume.  There was a gap down at the open as the futures overnight dropped 900 points.  So you can see there was quite a comeback during the session.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trending sideways.  The pandemic virus fears took ahold of the market on Sunday night as new outbreaks occurred around the globe.  The fear did not last though as the Fed announced it would continue to throw more money out there for whatever business that wanted it.  Now I'm not sure how long that can go on but it seemed to turn things around for stocks.  Speaking of the Fed, we've got the chairman testifying before Congress for the next two days.  So the possibility of more fireworks exists until after he's done on Wednesday.  Could go either way.  You do have to admire the comeback that we saw today though.  Option expiration week and things will get interesting.  GE was off a penny on good volume.  It did rise form its lows.  Gold lost a few bucks on the futures but it too came back from much lower ground early on.  The US dollar was lower.  The gold shares had one day reversals to the upside, opening lower and closing higher.  The XAI gained 2 3/4, while GDX was up 7/8.  Volume was light.  The short term technical indicators here still remain mid-range.  My GDX June calls are still at a loss but they at least came back from the dead this morning.  If we get more than a one day bounce here I might be able to exit this trade a break even.  The gold shares did outperform gold itself for a change and that is a plus for the bulls.  However with only four days left in the June option cycle, most likely any downside from here will kill the trade.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX had quite a stunning reversal back down today as well.  I still think that anything could happen here in the near term as volatility has been pretty steep in the past three days.  Combine that with the Fed speaking for a couple of days and it appears that anything could happen.  Any short term SPY trades now will be very risky as premiums are high and the time left is low.  So there are a lot of question marks without any solid answers at the moment.  I think the prudent course of action here would be to sit it out until a decent set up arrives.  There will be money to be made but trades will have to have a strict short term nature to them.  Asia was lower and Europe showed slight losses overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow. 

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