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Friday, June 19, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow had a upside gap at the open only to give it all back and then some.  The Dow fell 208 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The Dow was weaker than the overall market and the NASDAQ finished with a very small gain.  Fears of the spread of the pandemic virus are back as states that have reopened are showing more infections.  The question is just how bad will it get?  There are no answers as nobody really knows.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to roll over to the downside.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was light.  Gold found buyers out of nowhere as the futures gained $25.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 4 1/8, while GDX rose 1 1/8.  Volume was average.  A day late for me with the gold shares gain.  It would have cut my loss if it had happened yesterday.  But it didn't and we can only go from here.  The short term technical indicators for the gold shares have now turned up.  I'm still committed to heading to the sidelines for a while.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back above its 50 day moving average and the indicators here have turned up.  Perhaps we'll see some follow through downside on Monday depending on what the weekend brings.  There is a chance that the NASDAQ has put in a small double top on the daily chart.  Combine that with the roll over of the indicators on most of the other stock indices and the picture is far from bullish.  I'm also strongly considering the possibility of things slowing down for the summer.  There are plenty of question marks for the market to consider here.  Among them are the pandemic virus, the reopening of the economy, the recent civil unrest and the upcoming election.  I'm not exactly sure that this is the kind of background environment conducive to a strong rally.  The current state of the short term indicators remains at mid-range so it's fifty-fifty as to what happens here.  It does look like gold wants to break out of its trading range to the upside after todays price action but it hasn't happened yet.  The gold shares are lagging and that isn't  the most bullish situation either.  We'll see what happens next week.  Plenty to ponder over the weekend and I'll be checking the charts as usual.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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