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Monday, June 22, 2020

It was a one day reversal to the upside as the Dow opened lower and closed higher.  The most watched index gained 153 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues to trend sideways.  Not a lot to say about today.  The pandemic virus remains a worry with more cases being reported.  But we also have states reopening up businesses which will spur economic activity.  My view is that we're a long way from getting back to normal.  The massive liquidity infusion that we've seen from the Fed should soften any blow.  Although we have seen a new all time high for the NASDAQ, I don't think we'll see that anytime soon for the S&P 500.  I could be wrong.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was lighter than lately.  Gold was up over a dozen on the futures as the US dollar was lower.  Gold is now right at the top of its congestion zone and appears ready to break out to the upside.  The XAU was up almost 5 points, while GDX gained 1 1/3.  Volume was better than it has been.  These indices have now broken above their down trend lines that have been in effect since mid-May.  They are also touching the top of their respective Bollinger bands.  This will either lead to a breakout above the band or the advance will be turned around right here.  Tomorrow will be an important session for the gold shares.  I'm inclined to believe that things will go higher because we've seen some volume in the past couple of days.  The short term technical indicators have turned around and there is still room for them to go up as well.  I was going to stay on the sidelines but this could be the move higher in the gold shares that I've been looking for.  I do not really want to chase things here but I might.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed back below its 50 day moving average today.  The indicators here have now rolled back over to imply that perhaps a rally in stocks is going to occur in the near term.  Of course that could all change tomorrow.  I'm staying on the sidelines with regards to the SPY for now.  I don't have a decent signal one way or the other there.  My thoughts tonight will be on gold and whether or not to give that trade another shot.  Europe and Asia were lower to begin the trading week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

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