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Monday, July 20, 2020

The Dow did have a one day reversal to the upside as it opened lower and closed higher.  It managed to gain 8 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were negative though.  The summation index is moving higher but at a grinding pace.  The overall market was very much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ up over 250 points.  The McClellan oscillator gave a signal on Friday for a big move within the next two trading days.  We saw it in the overall market today but not in the Dow.  We'll see what happens tomorrow.  I'm going to have to consider that my negative prognosis for the market is wrong with the nice moves higher today for the S&P and the NASDAQ.  The negative breadth though is puzzling to be sure.  GE was off twenty cents on light volume.  Gold continues to climb as the August futures were up eight bucks.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 4 1/8, while GDX gained a point.  Volume was light as it has been.  There appears to be no stopping the gold shares as there are no sellers and what little selling that occurs is met with buyers.  I still would like to purchase some GDX August calls at some point.  Overbought to be sure for the gold indices and staying that way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped today and touched its lower Bollinger band.  It also made it below its 50 week moving average.  That is the first time that's happened since the huge rally that began in February for the VIX.  What exactly that means going forward I certainly don't know.  I do know that touching that lower Bollinger band has been a short term sell signal for the market lately.  The SPY put option premiums were just too high for me today or I would have tried the August puts here.  I'm aware that things could go south here but I'm also aware that the NASDAQ is leading the way higher here and that is usually bullish.  With plenty of time in the August option cycle there's no rush to put on a trade as well.  We'll know more as the week unfolds.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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