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Friday, July 10, 2020

It's been a back and forth week for the Dow as it gained 369 points today on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still trending down.  Nothing else has changed here as the major averages remain short term overbought.  The S&P 500 is trending along the declining tops line from the end of February.  I did place an order for some SPY July puts but it wasn't filled.  We are almost to the top of the Bollinger band for the SPY here.  As I have already stated this week, the bands are contracting and there will be a big move soon.  Really, things could go either way.  The usual positive options expiration bias could take things much higher.  Or we could roll over here and have a decent drop.  I'm going to have to make up my mind over the weekend but I have been leaning towards the bearish side.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off five bucks on the August futures.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  My other idea for next week are the GDX July calls with only a week to go for the options.  The up trend line remains intact for GDX along with its perpetual overbought status.  Even when there is some selling here there certainly isn't a lot of it as traders seem to want to hold on for the longer term.  I can't argue with that.  It's something else to look at this weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX dropped two points today and any follow through buying on Monday morning should have it touching the lower Bollinger band and setting up the sell signal.  It could very well be worth taking the risk.  I'll ponder this over the weekend.  I also still believe that the market could shoot through the downtrend line that's currently in place as it remains overbought.  There isn't what I would exactly call a clear cut signal.  So it is with the markets.  I'll do the work over the weekend and try to come up with the right decision.  I do anticipate a big move one way or the other next week for the stock market.  The opportunity for profit will be there.  Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

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