Thursday, July 30, 2020
We had a big sell off early but the market spent the rest of the day trying to recover. The most watched index fell 224 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is back to sideways. Once again the overall market was stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the green. The GDP report came in about where expected. I did place an overnight order for some SPY August puts but it wasn't filled. I may look to do this trade next week. Big tech reports after the bell today and that should set the tone for early tomorrow. We've got the end of the month on Friday also. I'm looking at the puts but the market has had chances to sell off this week but hasn't. Perhaps the bulls are ready to take charge. I'm still leaning bearish though. GE was off another 1/3 and the volume was pretty heavy again. Gold took a breather as the August futures dropped twenty bucks. The US dollar continues its free fall. The XAU shed about 5 1/2, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was about average. I still like the GDX August calls and will try to get some ahead of the earnings from GOLD and others that are due out in the beginning of next month. The short term technical indicators for GDX have rolled over. I don't expect a huge scale drop for the gold shares but at least some pause in the rally near term. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX had a pop and a drop today and remains oversold. The early decline at the open never got legs and that was reflected in the VIX. Probably the best course of action for me will be to let the month of July end and take things from there. I did place an order for some calls in SRNE, which is another one of the pandemic virus plays. It hasn't been filled so I left it open. The other pandemic play that I was looking at, HOLX, did report earnings after the bell and the stock did have a nice move higher today. SRNE will report in the second week of August. However this stock doesn't have any earnings but will be reporting a FDA ruling on that day. A favorable ruling should send the stock higher. It did have a nice move up today and I may be too late for this idea. Once again, the risk is higher with individual stocks than it is for the indexes as one bad piece of news can quickly change the picture if you're long. But that is part of the game when trading options. There is more option liquidity with SRNE vs. HOLX and that's at least a plus. The pandemic virus also isn't going away anytime soon. Asia was lower and Europe had a rough session overnight. We'll close out the week and the month tomorrow.
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