The start of a new trading week continues with the same grind higher for stocks.  The Dow rose 31 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways with a downward bias.  Overbought with new all time highs.  The beat goes on.  I'm not sure how much longer this can go on.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle, so there's no hurry to put on a SPY trade.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was about average.  It appears that I have once again missed the GDX call trade.  Not happy about that.  However we have yet to see a robust rise here for the gold shares.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it as necessary if we start to see gold falter.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still waiting for a pull back to the breakout at 3025 for the S&P 500.  I might be waiting forever for that to occur.  With no overhead resistance the market simply continues to gravitate higher.  The low VIX just helps that along.  The favorable seasonal time period is another plus.  If a deal is reached with the US and China trade issue that is actually signed even higher prices could happen.  I will say that sometimes in December there is a decline in the market to set things up for a January rally.  But it's still November and the overbought condition has persisted for weeks on end.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A positive headline on the US/China trade front and the Dow soared 222 points.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average despite option expiration.  The summation index is back to a sideways trend.  We are now getting overbought to the extreme on most of the major stock averages.  How long will this go on?  Usually longer than you can stay solvent according to the old saying.  Retail sales came in where expected.  Next week doesn't have a lot of economic data due out.  The Fed beige book is about the only potential market mover that I see.  Of course we're simply at the mercy of what comes out of the US and China at this point.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $4 on the futures and came up from the lows of the session.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low as the market hits new all time highs.  The market action of the past couple of weeks was a consolidation and not a top.  There's no overhead resistance and I'm not sure just how long this can go on.  The extra week in the December option cycle along with a holiday week thrown in there makes trading the SPY here probably something that should be put on hold.  I'd still love to see a retracement to the break out point but that doesn't appear likely now.  I guess we'll just enjoy the rise up and see how high we can go.  If a trade deal is ever signed, to me that would be the top and time to purchase some puts.  But we still have no idea if and when that will occur.  We'll see what happens over the weekend and go from there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual.  Europe and Asia rallied to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

The market continues to just hang around here as the Dow was off a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index has rolled over but isn't moving steadily down yet.  Most of the major stock indices remain overbought.  We are in a sloppy, slightly upward congestion zone for now.  I do think that whichever way it breaks won't hold for long regardless of the direction.  There are no catalysts long or short here at the moment.  Perhaps the next US/China trade headline will get things going.  Retail sales data is out tomorrow morning, maybe that can get us moving.  It's also options expiration Friday.  GE was flat and the volume was very light.  Gold continued higher as the futures added another $7.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains on light volume.  It appears that I've missed the GDX call trade again but the price velocity here isn't what it was.  So I'm thinking that I still may have a chance here on a decline in the next couple of weeks if it occurs.  The technical indicators are now mid-range for the gold shares.  The limp rally that we've seen in gold isn't impressive and a turn around would not be a surprise.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what the market is waiting here for.  We are either building some type of a short term top or consolidating before breaking out to new all time highs again.  Take your pick.  We'll be rolling into the December option cycle next week and they have an extra week in them.  Therefore premiums will be higher than normal and that makes for even tougher decisions.  We will not remain overbought forever and somewhere in that cycle will be a chance for the SPY December puts to work.  The VIX tried to pop up today but fell back.  We are however working the short term indicators back to the middle of the range.  I still think that any decline will be shallow and stopping at 3025 on the S&P 500 if one ever occurs.  That's my best guess for now.  Europe and Asia were lower once again.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

Back and forth today as the Dow gained 92 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  The summation index is starting to roll over.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the red.  The market seems to be in a churn here as the overbought condition persists.  I really think that some corrective price action is necessary before we go much higher but I cannot rule out a grind upwards during expiration week.  The Fed chairman testimony was a non event.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower.  My thinking on the next SPY trade is to get through this week and we'll take it from there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving my GDX January call trade out there but will adjust it lower if the gold shares start to decline here.  Another run down to the 26 level for GDX should get this trade filled.  But I must admit the background for the precious metal now is not as bullish as it was earlier in the year.  Mentally I'm feeling bit tired, did not sleep well.  We've been in a sideways drift higher for the S&P for the past week and a half.  We have hit new all time highs but the action hasn't been exactly what you'd call robust.  Of course some kind of trade headline out of the blue could get things going either way but we can't take positions based on that.  I still think things need to go lower before we can get going much higher.  A trip back to the former resistance at 3025 would do the trick.  Until then we'll have to wait on the SPY for now.  Gold has been drifting lower for 2 1/2 months.  That has worked off the overbought conditions but there aren't any near term catalysts to move higher that I can see.  That is why I'm willing to go out until January on the gold share calls here.  It would give the trade some time to work.  Bu that also means that would could just continue to drift here as well.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Another mixed day as the Dow was flat on the day with light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 were positive.  My guess is that the market is trying to make up its mind on whether or not to roll over here.  Still short term overbought on all the technical indicators that I look at for the S&P.  That isn't to say that we can't grind higher for the rest of expiration week but a pause is now long overdue.  GE was up a few cents on about average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks and came off of it lows set earlier in the day.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  My open order for the GDX January calls wasn't filled despite hitting my buy price as the low for the session.  This trade now may have been missed if the gold shares continue to climb tomorrow.  My hope is that they trade sideways form here for a while but if the trade has been missed so be it.  I'm not all together certain that the calls here are the right course of action with the recent background negative developments for gold.  But as usual the markets go where they want and anything can happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed chairman speaking in Washington tomorrow and that has the potential to move things.  I'm not exactly sure what to expect there.  Probably more of the status quo.  The VIX remains oversold and continues with rather low readings.  This is a positive for stocks as long as it keeps up.  It also says to me that any decline will be shallow in the near term.  Barring some unforeseen out of the blue headline.  Gold and the gold shares look like they're trying to put in a near term bottom here.  I hope for my sake that it takes more time than today to develop.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag again to start the week as the Dow rose 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 lower.  We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions.  That should occur tomorrow if the signal proves valid.  We sold off hard at the open today with Dow off over 150.  But as has been the case lately the declines are seen as buying opportunities.  It was a partial holiday today with banks and the bond market closed.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold lost another $6 today as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  Oversold now for gold and GDX but not the XAU.  I did place another open order for the GDX January calls but I'm not exactly sure this is the right trade.  I'm leaving it out there though and it could get filled with a bit more of a decline for GDX.  Once again we are at an area technically that has ended the declines in the gold shares before.  However I'm not as confident in the upside from here this time around as the backdrop for higher metals prices isn't as bullish.  That may change with the testimony form the Fed chairman on Wednesday or it may simply further depress price.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and at a low level.  That is why the recent rally hasn't failed.  We had a chance to turn things around there today but it was not to be.  Perhaps the usual bullish options expiration week bias will take hold.  We are overdue for some kind of selling though.  I do think that a trip back to the break out point cannot be ruled out but it is a question of when.  Inflation data due out later in the week along with retail sales on Friday.  Everybody will be back at their desks tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the market action and headlines tonight.  

Sputtering to the upside for the Dow as it gained 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  Remaining overbought here on the technical indicators as we grind our way higher.  New closing all time highs for some of the major stock indices albeit on lighter volume.  I'm still in a cautious mood here for the overall market.  Yes we can grind higher with the VIX at the low level that it is.  But with the narrow breadth I think most of the gains have already been made and the next move should be a drop back to the breakout of 3025 for the S&P 500.  The question is from what level.  At this rate 3100 seems a reasonable upside target.  GE was up another 1/4 on good volume.  A straight line up here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I re-entered my GDX January call trade but it wasn't filled.  I'll go over this idea again on the weekend.  Oversold on GDX but not the XAU.  Gold and silver appear to be breaking down here but the technical indicators are at levels that rewarded purchasing calls in the recent past.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The bond market will be closed on Monday for the holiday.  All others will be open.  Perhaps we'll continue higher into the expiration in a week.  But I do not expect any major move to the upside from here.  I will wait for a pull back to the breakout zone and look to try some SPY calls there if it happens.  Gold looks like it's heading lower here on the weekly chart.  Support there comes in at $1425.  GDX seems to be at the moment of truth since the support there is at 26 and we are practically there.  The weekly chart there looks like it wants to break down although we are oversold but not completely.  Tough call but I'm leaning towards attempting the GDX calls anyway.  More study needs to done over the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A good news headline from the US/China trade talks and the Dow soared 182 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  This month or so rally is now losing steam.  The breadth lately hasn't matched up properly with the price moves higher.  We could drift higher into the expiration next week but a sell off would not surprise me.  Had we rallied into the close today I would have a different narrative.  But things with the market are starting to look tired to me.  We will not stay overbought forever.  The VIX says any decline here won't be huge.  However a pause in the festivities is now overdue.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold got whacked today and was off almost $25.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that the big move forecast by the Bollinger bands is to the downside.  I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  Support for gold comes in at around $1450.  Another day like today and we'll be there.  The gold shares aren't completely oversold yet but should be soon perhaps even by tomorrow.  The fundamentals have now changed for gold it seems as uncertainty on the trade war is waning, rates are no longer going lower, Brexit has been put off again and the US dollar is rising.  I'm still a believer in golf though for the longer term.  I may also re-enter my GDX January call trade tonight after I check the charts again.  At a lower price of course and perhaps a different strike price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I originally thought that we would simply move up into the expiration next week.  The recent price action says that perhaps some decline is due sooner rather than later.  The breadth is narrowing so much that the rally simply cannot go on like this.  I'd certainly like to try some SPY November puts here but don't know if I will.  I do think that the breakout higher is for real though but that doesn't mean that we can't have a move back down to the breakout point at around 3025 for the S&P 500.  So there will be plenty to ponder as we consider what to do overnight.  Europe and Asia rallied on the positive trade war news.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A day of hanging around as the Dow was flat on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  The summation index is beginning to turn sideways.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  Nothing has really changed with the technical indicators.  I view what is going on as a pause before we move up to new highs again.  Things will roll over eventually.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was OK.  Gold bounced back $8 today.  The US dollar finished relatively unchanged.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on light volume.  GOLD reported earnings and had a mild gain for the day.  Still waiting on the big move for gold and the gold shares.  I'm leaving my order in for the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and there's nothing to suggest an imminent return to volatility.  Of course that could change with the next US/China trade headline but even that hasn't had any real effect lately.  The market expects some kind of deal to get signed in the near future.  Unless there's a complete breakdown in talks, that is the expected outcome.  Even if the deal doesn't mean much.  Seven days to go in the November option cycle.  My guess is that the market will at least hold up until expiration.  You cannot underestimate the no overhead resistance scenario.  There's nothing in the way to higher prices in the near term and probably longer.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A mixed bag today but the Dow continued higher.  The most watched index rose 30 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up but we may see a change here soon.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 in negative territory.  The trend remains up but we could see some near term weakness now.  The S&P has moved pretty far from its 50 day moving average but I don't think that a huge decline is about to happen.  We're still overbought on all the short term indicators.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good.  Gold fell today as the futures dropped $25 seemingly out of nowhere.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  It could have been worse for the gold shares but they continue to hold up for now.  NEM dropped on its earnings report.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  Todays gold price action is leading me to believe that the big move coming will be lower instead of higher.  If that's the case there will be no need to try the GDX January calls right now.  It is some thing to keep a close eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'm also physically not 100% with a sore back.  Anything that takes away from the trading concentration is an obstacle that must be overcome.  The VIX was up a bit again today.  As long as it stays below the 16 level the rally will live on in my view.  However some short term weakness would not be out of the question.  Perhaps that will set us up for a try at the SPY November calls going into expiration week.  Just a guess on my part.  The big drop in gold today is a concern for the bulls.  A close below $1475 could take us to $1450 in a hurry.  That would totally negate my outlook for GDX calls here.  Hasn't happened yet but again, it is something to watch very closely.  GOLD is reporting its earnings tomorrow and that could set the tone for the price action in the gold indices tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.     

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 114 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We remain overbought as we have been for weeks.  There's some economic data due this week but not a lot.  There's also some earnings to deal with but the bulk of companies have reported.  The market has broken out, the volume is decent and there is no overhead resistance.  Expect higher prices going forward.  GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume.  Overbought here as well.  Gold finished flat on the day, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  NEM reports tomorrow followed by GOLD on Wednesday.  This should move the gold shares indices one way or the other.  I've left my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit higher today with a market rally.  That usually is a sign of some weakness ahead.  I don't think I'll be able to trade it though.  The most recent time this occurred, we were only down for a day.  Plus with new all time highs being made on a daily basis, it's hard to be bearish here.  Perhaps if I get a better signal in the days ahead a trade might present itself in the SPY.  The Bollinger bands remain tight for gold and something big will happen there soon in my view.  I'm still assuming that it will be to the upside.  Time will tell on that.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report was a bit better than expected and the market liked what it saw.  The Dow climbed 301 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  Overbought and have been for weeks.  No overhead resistance for the major averages.  We're hitting new all time highs on the major stock indices.  My idea for the SPY November puts was wrong.  It might be appropriate as we move forward but it would be hard to buck the trend here.  The market had chances to sell off this week but it didn't.  That probably got rid of a lot of the selling and there are only buyers left.  Shorts have to be covered as well.  No overhead resistance is a huge factor too.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up a buck as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  The gold shares are overbought but there doesn't seem to be any sellers left there either.  We will get earnings form GOLD and NEM next week.  That should move things either way for GDX.  My open order for the GDX January calls looks like it will not be filled.  I may have to adjust things again here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX stays oversold and that means the market is in rally mode.  No telling how long this condition will last.  All the way until this months expiration?  I certainly don't know.  The US/China trade tariffs have moved to the background.  The US presidents pending impeachment hearings haven't affected stocks.  The postponement of Brexit has elicited a yawn.  The market is ignoring most everything and moving higher.  You cannot get in the way of that.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  But we are in bullish mode for the foreseeable future.  The positive seasonality is another plus.  Asia was mixed with Europe higher.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

The market traded lower to end the month as the Dow fell 140 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  This should start to turn the summation index sideways.  I don't think that this is the beginning of a huge decline.  The market came up from the worst levels of the day.  The overall market wasn't as weak as the Dow either.  Of course things could change with the reaction to the jobs report tomorrow so we'll see.  We are still short term overbought for the major stock indices.  I might still consider the SPY November puts before expiration.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was heavy.  No follow through to yesterdays gains.  Gold was up over $15 as the US dollar was lower.  The US house also voted for impeachment hearings against the president.  Those are possible reasons for todays rise in the precious metal.  The XAU added 2 1/3, while GDX climbed almost 3/4.  Volume was good to the upside and this could be the beginning of the huge move projected by the tight Bollinger bands.  If so it is something worth chasing despite the short term overbought condition of the gold shares.  It looks like I may have missed it here again.  My open order remains out there for the GDX January calls but it is far from being hit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX spiked up today but we'll know more if it is real after tomorrow.  To me it seems as though we are in a drift upward for stocks.  Of course this will eventually end but I don't think right now is the time.  I could be wrong.  If gold and the gold shares continue to rise tomorrow I may just have to jump on board.  There is the potential for something big there in my view if we continue higher.  As for the S&P 500, the price action at the end of the day says that we are not going to simply drop from here.  If we closed near the lows it's a different story.  Let's see how things go tomorrow.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll watch for the market reaction to the employment report tomorrow and take it from there. 

The market rallied on the Fed as the Dow rose 115 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We were lower for much of the session pre-Fed but then moved up in the final two hours.  Rates were lowered again and chairman Powell afterward said what the market wanted to hear.  The S&P remains short term oversold and staying that way.  It looks like we could see some more rally tomorrow on the AAPL and FB earnings that were announced after the bell.  I canceled my orders for the SPY November puts.  We've broken the resistance and the volume is decent.  Markets can simply stay overbought for extended periods of time and that is the situation we find ourselves in today.  I may still try the SPY puts again before the end of the week or early next week.  GE was up a buck on extremely heavy volume.  The street liked the earnings.  Gold bounced around on the Fed today.  The futures finally finished with a gain of $8.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on better volume.  The gold shares sold off but came back up off of their lows after the Fed speech.  More overbought than oversold here but not dramatically so.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to drop and remains oversold.  This is no doubt positive for stocks but it can't go on forever.  Regardless, the S&P should continue to rise with declines probably being shallow as long as the VIX remains below the 16 level.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower today but both came up form the lows of the session.  The breadth is the only thing lacking in this run to new highs for the market.  At some point that will catch up with the rally but the question is when?  We've still got the jobs report on Friday to digest but at this rate it will be viewed as a positive no matter what the numbers are.  I'm not sure why I don't trust this rally but I don't.  Technically, the picture is positive despite being overbought for so long.  I'll look things over again tonight.  Asia was lower and Europe mixed in last nights trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow. 

Waiting on the Fed as the Dow fell 19 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow led by a decline in the NASDAQ.  I'm still considering the SPY November puts if we get some strength tomorrow.  The market remains short term overbought.  A lot hinges on what the Fed has to say tomorrow.  We'll also get earnings from Facebook and Apple after the bell.  Google disappointed today and that could be a harbinger of things to come.  Or not.  The VIX remains low in market rally mode and is oversold.  So there are plenty of crosscurrents that could lead things to go either way.  I will probably wait for the Fed announcement and short any rally out of that.  If we drop beforehand, I'll sit things out.  GE was flat on average volume.  Gold was off a few bucks and the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving my order out there for the GDX January calls.  We'll need to see some more decline there to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  About ready to attempt a trade in the SPY here but it will be risky.  We've broken out above resistance for the S&P but it hasn't been robust.  That could change tomorrow and that is one of the risks.  Good earnings after the bell is another risk.  Add the employment report due out on Friday and you can see how the risks for a trade here either way pile up.  I am pretty sure that if things set up for me though I'll pull the trigger.  Some of my indicators are topping out and pointing towards at least a short term decline.  We've remained overbought for a while now and although that could continue, I'm betting that it won't.  The market is at least due to take a rest.  I could be wrong though but one thing is for sure.  Tomorrows market action will tell a lot.  Asia was generally higher with Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see what the Fed has to say tomorrow and take it from there.  

The Dow was higher today and the S&P 500 closed at new all time highs.  The most watched index rose 132 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving up.  We got a signal on Friday for a big move according to the McClellan oscillator.  Today qualifies as that.  We have broken above resistance for the S&P but the volume was lacking and I'm considering getting some SPY November puts.  In fact today may have been the day to do that.  If we open down tomorrow, it may be too late for the puts.  Or I could simply be wrong here and the rally keeps going.  Short term overbought still and staying that way.  It should be an interesting week, with the Fed on Wednesday and the jobs report on Friday.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was light.  Sort term overbought here as well.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was slightly lower as well.  The XAU was down 1 3/4, while GDX shed 2/3.  Volume was light.  The price action we saw on Friday foretold the move lower today for gold and the gold shares.  However the Bollinger bands remain tight for these instruments.  A big move is coming in either direction here.  I did once again place an open order for the GDX January calls which I am leaving out there.  But if GDX breaks the 26 level, I'll have to cancel the order because that would mean that the big move in gold will be lower.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit higher today despite the nice move in stocks.  This sometimes means that lower prices are coming.  We've been short term overbought for quite some time now for the S&P.  I'm expecting the indicators to move lower at some point during the November option cycle.  Perhaps with the events of this week we'll finally get a catalyst for lower prices.  But we do have the over the counter prices breaking out to new highs as well so we may just trend higher with no break.  RUT continues to lag though and that is a concern for the bulls.  With all the news that's about to break this week, staying on the sidelines is a strategy as well.  However sticking with the technical indicators is the way that we'll go.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  We'll be watching the volume closely form here.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  It seems as though there is a worldwide shift into stocks going on at the moment.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.    

The market moved higher today as the Dow gained 152 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We almost closed at a new record high for the S&P 500.  It did set anew intra-day high but then backed off.  Good earnings and positive US/China feedback propelled stocks higher.  We are still short term overbought for the major averages.  In rallies we remain that way.  If we get through the resistance here on good volume the market will go much higher.  If we struggle our way from here, I may try the SPY November puts ahead of the Fed announcement on Wednesday.  The VIX continues lower and that means the rally has some staying power in my view.  However I would not rule out a short sell off if the news on Wednesday isn't what the market wants.  GE was up a nickel on light volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks after being higher early on.  The US dollar was up a bit today as well.  The XAU gained 1 1/2, while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was good again.  The gold shares finished off of their highs as well.  The price action today was puzzling to me and I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  We are approaching short term overbought for the gold shares.  We have broken the down trend lines of resistance for gold and the gold shares.  But the action isn't exactly as robust as you would like to see.  I'll be looking things over the weekend to determine what to do next.  It appears that we may have to head back to the resistance line just broken before a meaningful rally ensues.  I could be wrong.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  It looks like everything is lining up for new all time closing highs next week for the S&P.  If so, I'll be paying close attention to the volume and the breadth.  The wild card is the Fed announcement on Wednesday along with the chairmans speech afterward.  I will probably wait for the GDX trade after that as well.  The TRAN had a good day today with good volume.  Perhaps that will lead the Dow higher as well.  RUT had a positive session as well.  These indices do remain pretty overbought though and that won't last forever.  Plenty of work to do over the weekend.  Europe and Asia were generally higher to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Kind of a mixed bag today as the Dow fell 28 points on better than average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 both showed gains.  Overbought and staying that way for now.  Earnings have come in OK so far and they are not having a negative effect.  Waiting on the Fed next week at this point.  Very close to new all time highs on some of the stock indices and we should see them soon.  No headlines out of the blue.  GE was off almost 1/4 on lighter volume.  Gold found buyers today, the futures were up $10 and we're back over the $1500 level.  The US dollar rose as well.  The XAU climbed two points, while GDX added almost 3/4.  We have just risen slightly above the declining tops line for the gold share indices that started in the beginning of September.  The break of that line would put us back in rally mode for the gold shares.  It appears to be in the cards at this point.  I did adjust my open order for the GDX January calls but it wasn't filled.  I my adjust it again tomorrow.  This would be one of those times where it may pay to chase the move.  Not that doesn't really fit in with my guess of no change in rates on Wednesday.  However the charts provide much better information than my guesses.  If for some reason the gold shares drop again tomorrow, I will have to rethink what I'm doing.  But it looks like the rally in precious metals is about to pick up again right now.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and the rally in the overall market continues.  We remain comfortably below the 16 level and as long as that continues the rally is on.  Perhaps the Fed will lower the fed funds rate again next week but I certainly don't think that it has to.  I suppose I'll wait and see how things look technically before the announcement on Wednesday and take it from there.  If we get a weak break to new all time highs in the S&P, I'll consider the SPY November puts.  Gold on the other hand, looks ready to begin another climb if it can get above the declining tops line in the next few sessions.  Perhaps even tomorrow if we get some upside follow through.  My hope is that I'm not too late but that may be the case.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

The market continues to simply hang around here, just shy of new all time highs.  Is it a top or a consolidation before we break out?  The Dow rose 45 points today on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index continues higher.  We remain short term overbought for the major averages.  Bad news for the semiconductor sector didn't stick.  The market climbed in the final hour.  Yesterdays bearish candlesticks look like they're a precursor for sideways action instead of a decline.  No new market moving headlines today.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks while the US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU added a point while GDX rose 1/4.  Volume was average.  I'm still trying to figure out which way the precious metals are going to go here.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  We do have the Fed in a week and I do not think that they will be cutting rates again at this particular meeting.  That is my best guess as of today.  That would not be bullish for the precious metals and I am considering canceling my order before the announcement.  I could be wrong of course but I have to consider all the possibilities.  If the Fed stands pat I do believe that we'd see a sell off in stocks.  I my try the SPY November puts ahead of the meeting if we continue to be overbought.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains below the 16 level and volatility has taken a break for now.  That isn't the usual October pattern but it is for now.  So for now it looks like I'll just let this week go by and try to trade off of the Fed next week.  Europe and Asia were mixed with muted price action despite the Brexit delay.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight trading.

Lower today as the Dow seemed to begin falling when news of another Brexit failure hit the wires.  The Dow fell 39 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were positive though.  The summation index continues higher.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today.  The major indices remain short term overbought.  Although the averages declined the advance/declines were positive.  This tells me that we are not at the brink of disaster and my original thesis of getting to new all time highs for the S&P 500 is still intact.  It may take longer than this week now though.  The TRAN and RUT both closed higher today and that is a plus.  GE was up 1/4 on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks and the US dollar was higher as well.  Perhaps a small flight to safety move in these instruments after the Brexit delay.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves on light volume.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  There is still the implication of a big move coming in precious metals.  I'm still looking for that to be positive but it really could go either way.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The daily candlestick charts for some of the major stock averages now have bearish engulfing patterns.  We'll see if this plays out to lower prices in the days ahead.  The VIX rose today on the late sell off.  It remains below the line of demarcation that I'm putting at the 16 level.  As long as that holds, I'm looking for higher prices.  Not SPY trades in mind right now.  If we do get down to oversold, I may try the SPY November calls.  However, as you can see by the price action today, we're always at the mercy of the next headline.  It's just part of the game that has gotten more common than it used to be.  Europe and Asia were higher overnight.  That probably will change tonight with the Brexit drama.  It also could cause a rally in gold and the US dollar.  But we'll just have to see how things play out as the story unfolds.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

A bullish start to the week as the Dow gained 57 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  Once again the overall market was much stronger than the Dow.  Short term technical indicators remain overbought, which is generally the case in rallies.  My thinking is that new all time highs in the S&P 500 can be achieved this week.  Into the November option cycle now, so the premiums for SPY are high.  There's nothing wrong with waiting for the next trade at this point.  GE lost over 1/8 on good volume.  Gold fell $7 and the US dollar finished little changed.  The flight for safety has cooled down with the lack of US/China trade tension.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was average.  The indicators for the gold shares here have rolled over again and are heading down.  The Bollinger bands continue to contract but we have yet to see the strong move that it implies.  Could go either way here but I am leaving in my open order for the GDX January calls.  I'm also thinking about perhaps trying the November calls as well.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to be oversold.  What looked to me like a potential bottom here may simply be a sideways zone.  That would imply higher near term prices.  Earnings have been coming in for the market and it hasn't been too bad despite the US/China riff.  If this keeps up then new all time highs will be a forgone conclusion.  It is early in the week though.  Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight.  Brexit is still a question mark but the markets don't seem to care anymore.  It has been a long and drawn out soap opera.  We'll see if we get any upside follow through tomorrow.

The Dow took a drop to finish the week as it lost 225 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely negative.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  The summation index is still moving up.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have started to roll over.  I'm still positive for the market going forward.  Todays big drop in the Dow was not reflective of the overall market.  The advance/declines show that.  Of course we'll keep an eye on things but I do not think that a big decline is coming here.  GE lost a few cents on average volume.  Gold dropped a little on the futures as the US dollar was lower once again.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume.  We'll get some gold share earnings out next week and that will move things one way or the other.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX still looks like it's trying to put in a short term bottom here.  If that is the case we could see some more near term weakness for stocks.  But I do think that we are going to make a run at new all time highs in the S&P sooner rather than later.  We got through the option expiration today.  We'll see if there are any breaking headlines over the weekend.  Rolling into the November option cycle on Monday.  Europe and Asia were generally lower to end the week.  I'll be checking the charts as usual this weekend.  For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a positive session on Wall Street today as the Dow rose 24 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving higher.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow but we did come off of the best levels of the day.  Short term overbought and staying that way.  That is the sign of a rally.  I'm expecting new all time highs in the S&P 500, perhaps next week.  No big headlines today and that is another plus.  We haven't had any earnings disasters yet either.  So the trend is for higher prices until further notice.  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold finished with just a slight gain as the US dollar was much lower on the day.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX added over 1/3 on lighter volume.  The gold shares out performing gold is a plus for the bulls.  Meanwhile my open order for the GDX January calls won't get filled unless we see some weakness in the gold shares price.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for GDX.  I may be too late for this trade but I am not going to adjust my price higher.  Earnings will be due out next week for GOLD and NEM.  This will affect GDX one way or the other.  I still like the idea for the longer term gold share calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and appears to be putting in a bottom here on the daily chart.  That would imply weaker prices ahead but if that does occur I do not think that it is the beginning of a new down trend.  I would view it as a pause before higher prices.  My bullish stance here is backed by more than one indicator that I watch.  The positive seasonality is a plus as well.  As I have said, unless we all of a sudden get a negative headline, I'm looking for higher prices.  Expiration Friday is on tap for tomorrow.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe was generally lower as well.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.

No follow through to yesterdays good session as the Dow fell 22 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is still trying to turn up but is in a sideways pattern.  No big headlines in the news today.  We remain short term overbought.  Earnings have yet to be a major market mover.  We are close to another line of resistance for the S&P at 3000.  If we can get through there I do believe new all time highs will be reached shortly.  GE was flat on the day but the volume improves.  Gold bounced back about ten bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Perhaps we're putting in a bottom here for the gold shares as the oversold condition remains in place.  My order for the GDX January calls hasn't been filled and will take a bit more decline or time decay to be filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold.  Even if we got a short sell off for the rest of this week, as long as the VIX remains below 16 I'll be positive on the market.  The technical set up from here appears to me to be bullish.  Yes things can change in a hurry on a negative headline but the technical backdrop is constructive in my view.  Only a couple of days to go in option expiration week.  I'll simply be sitting back and watching things at this point.  We'll roll into the November cycle and take it from there.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Moving higher today as the Dow gained 237 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were almost 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is trying to turn back up here.  Getting short term overbought on the technical indicators for the major averages.  However there is still room for some more upside.  Headlines are not driving things at the moment.  The technical expectation is for higher prices and that is what we're getting.  New all time highs are within reach.  perhaps the positive expiration week bias will get us there.  GE was up over 1/8 on lighter volume.  Gold is losing its luster and was off a dozen today.  The US dollar was lower as well.  The XAU was down almost 2 1/2, while GDX shed 7/8.  Volume was good.  We are now short term oversold for the gold shares and right at the lower Bollinger band.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  But we are getting to the moment of truth.  It's entirely possible that gold and the gold shares could break down here.  The contracting Bollinger bands imply a big move and it could go either way.  I'm leaving the option order out there but there is a chance that it could be the wrong move.  I am long term positive on this sector though as the longer range charts have bullish patterns.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is oversold but also now way below the 16 level and that is bullish for the stock market.  Unless we get some negative headline out of the blue, expect new all time highs shortly.  Probably in the NASDAQ indices first and then followed by the S&P.  That's my guess at the moment.  The TRAN and RUT are lagging now but they may even make it back to record levels.  We are also just about to enter the seasonal positive period of November to April.  Things are looking up for stocks in my view.  There will be some earnings disappointments of course.  But overall it appears that we're heading higher.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trading.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

We didn't get any follow through to Fridays big day as the Dow lost 29 points on very light volume.  the advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  Some markets were closed today for Columbus day and that explains the low volume.  The VIX is solidly below the 16 level so I do believe that the rally has legs.  Only four days to go in the October option cycle so I don't see myself attempting any SPY trades this week.  That could change with a closer look at the data tonight but the risk would be high.  More overbought here than oversold for the major stock indices.  GE lost almost a dime on light volume.  Gold was up $7 and the US dollar was higher as well.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on very light volume.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We've got the US/China trade talks out of the way for now so what's the next market mover?  Earnings are on tap to begin again this week.  That should provide some company specific fireworks.  The S&P 500 has formed a triangle on the daily chart with an upside bias.  The weekly chart still shows the bearish megaphone pattern.  This implies that we'll see a near term rally to new all time highs and then a decent drop.  However we're all aware that things rarely stick to the plan in this game.  There's actually enough indecision in my mind to think that anything can happen.  But with the break above the resistance on good volume Friday, I'll have to stick with a bullish bias for now.  The Bollinger bands are still contracting on gold and the gold shares.  So we'll have to wait and see which way things get going there.  I'm banking on the long side.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

We saw a big rally today as some type of trade deal is going to be announced.  The Dow gained 320 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index around.  The Dow was up over 500 points but we saw a quick sell off in the final half hour of a couple hundred points.  Not exactly sure what that was.  Many of the major averages broke through the short term resistance trend lines including the S&P 500.  My bearish leaning stance is now over.  Look to purchase calls on weakness going forward unless something comes out of the blue over the weekend.  The technical indicators for the S&P 500 still have room to rise on a short term basis.  Option expiration week generally has a positive bias as well.  GE was up 1/3 on good volume.  Gold fell $5 but came back up off of its lows for the session.  The US dollar was lower as well.  I'm thinking that some of the flight to safety plays were taken off on the report of a trade deal.  The XAU fell 3 1/4, while GDX dropped a bit over a point.  Volume was heavy.  Resistance lines held for the gold shares.  The short term technical indicators have rolled back down here.  The medium term as well, with room to go lower.  I'm still leaving my GDX January call option ticket out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The tone of the market was positive today despite the late drop.  If the US/China trade deal holds up over the weekend, I would expect more upside on Monday.  The VIX has now closed below the 16 level and I believe that will mean that the rally has legs.  New all time highs for the S&P soon?  We'll see.  The volume picked up today and that is a plus.  Things are now looking positive for the stock market on a technical basis.  Of course the next headline could change things but for now it appears that the bulls will be in control.  I'll be checking all the charts over the weekend.  With only five days to go in the October option cycle, any SPY trade will have to quick with the increased risk and lack of time.  Europe and Asia finished the week with gains on the trade news.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

The market continued higher and the Dow gained 150 points on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  We're still waiting on the results of the US/China trade talks and that should come out tomorrow.  The market will certainly move on any kind of announcement.  I'm still considering getting some SPY October puts at the resistance line of 295 if we get a light volume rise to there.  We are on that path at the moment.  However a positive reaction to a trade deal could result in a high volume break above the resistance line and calls would be in order then.  So we really still don't know which way things will go.  Nothing would surprise me at this point.  GE was up a dime on light volume.  Gold fell a dozen on the futures despite a loss in the US dollar.  The gold shares did not follow though as the XAU was up 2/3 and GDX was unchanged.  Volume was light.  GDX is right at its resistance line along with its 50 day moving average.  I'll be looking to see if we get a high volume breakout here as well.  I'm not exactly sure if that will happen as the trade talks will probably influence movement here as well.  It could very well be a very interesting Friday in the markets.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is trying to roll over here but it closed right on the 50 day moving average and is still above the 16 level.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over here and that gives hope for the bullish cause for stocks.  Some of the major stock indices appear to be on the verge of breaking resistance higher but it hasn't happened yet.  With a declining summation index, I'm still leaning towards a bearish conclusion but that could change rapidly depending on the next headline.  I'll simply be patient for now, not to mention the October option cycle is running out of time.  Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trade.  We'll keep an eye on the US/China trade talks and close out the week tomorrow.   

We had a gap back to the upside today as the Dow gained 182 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is still heading lower.  The market is trying to make up its mind here and so am I.  The light volume today is troublesome for the bulls as there is no conviction behind the rise.  We're still in an area that could make or break things going forward.  All eyes and ears will be on the US/China trade talks taking place for the next two days.  That is a tough way to trade because nobody knows what will come out of that.  The technical indicators could go either way from the levels they're at right now.  I'd like to make a trade at some point but without a clear signal I'm probably going to wait.  GE was up a few cents on lighter volume.  Gold and the US dollar finished the day little changed.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  Gold and the gold shares could be affected by the trade talks as well.  Bad news will probably be gold for the yellow metal, while good news just the opposite.  But that's just a guess on my part.  The technical indicators for the gold shares are also in a zone where they could break either way.  I'm leaving my longer term GDX January call option trade out there.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired and need some more rest.  The VIX was lower today and remains overbought.  This indicator has been going back and forth for the past few weeks with an upwards bias.  Until we get back below the 16 level, I'm thinking we're still in an environment that could lead to sell offs.  We are running out of time in the October option cycle but I'm still looking for a trade there.  Being nimble still remains the key in my humble opinion as well.  It's no time to fall in love with ideas as the trading has been choppy.  Asia was lower and Europe generally higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

More downside action today as the Dow fell 314 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  We closed almost at the low for the day and that is not a positive.  We started the day with a gap to the downside.  The Fed chairman spoke and it did move the market higher for a while.  However things rolled back over in the last couple of hours as the trade talks haven't even started yet but the rhetoric has.  My idea of the SPY October puts has passed its entry point as it is too late now.  I'm not sure how low we go here.  Things would have to turn around quickly to change that assessment.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock averages have rolled back down.  GE was off 1/4 on average volume.  Gold rose over $10 on the futures in a flight to safety.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX gained 3/4.  Volume was good.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there but it won't be filled anytime soon.  I have a limit order and the price continues to move away from my limit.  I am not going to chase this as there remains plenty of time for some type of decline for the gold shares.  That said, I may have to adjust my thinking to what is going on here.  Perhaps gold is getting ready to start moving gain.  mentally I'm feeling OK.  Missed trades are always a pain.  But you've got to keep moving and look for the next one.  The VIX closed above the twenty level and is getting overbought again.  However in decent downside moves, it can remain overbought.  The S&P 500 is once again on the verge of breaking the up trend line that began in June.  If that happens we could get to support at 2825 in a hurry.  The next support is 100 points lower.  I'm not saying that will happen here but it could.  Any positive news on the US/China trade front will send the market soaring higher but we haven't seen any of that yet.  It may not even occur.  We'll stick with lower prices as long as the summation index continues down.  But it's a market that is moving both ways with a vengeance, so it's a tricky place to be.  I'll consider my next move overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower last night.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

We begin the week on a down note, with the Doe falling 95 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were short of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index continues lower.  We tried to get some upside follow through to Fridays huge gains but the market started to roll over in the final two hours.  I did place an order for the SPY October puts but it wasn't filled.  I still may try this idea if we get back to the resistance at around 296 on the SPY.  Inflation data due out this week along with the beige book on Wednesday.  We've got trade talks between the US and China starting on Thursday.  So it could be a headline event situation at some point this week.  In my mind the market could go either way but I will favor the SPY puts if we get some advance in the next couple of sessions.  GE finished flat on the session and the volume was light.  Gold fell almost $15 today as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The gold shares didn't follow as much with the XAU and GDX showing fractional losses on little volume.  I'm keeping my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains above the 16 level and above both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  I'm hoping that we get back to 16 there before a real decline takes place.  But hope is not a good trading strategy.  As long as the summation index continues going down, I'm going to stay with a short side bias.  Whether the market cooperates with me being able to make a trade is what will concern me going forward.  Only nine days to go in the October option cycle.  Probably a good idea to be nimble here and not fall in love with any particular idea.  The lack of volume lately certainly isn't a positive.  We'll see if it picks up one way or the other.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  Chine opens again tonight after being on holiday for a week.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The bounce continued or perhaps we can call it a rally now as the Dow jumped 372 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive.  Todays action should stall the summation index from moving lower.  The jobs report was in line with expectations but it appears the market is pricing in another rate cut happening soon.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P have turned up.  The drawback today was the low volume.  We are also almost at the near term resistance of around 296 on the SPY.  However we cannot ignore the strength of the price movement in the past two days.  It looks like the market is going to go test all time highs again and soon.  GE was off 1/8 and the volume was average.  Gold was off a couple bucks and the US dollar finished little changed.  The gold shares followed the market higher though and that's bullish there.  The XAU was up 1 3/4, while GDX gained almost 2/3.  Volume was average.  The short term indicators have turned up here as well.  I'm leaving in my open order for some GDX January calls but don't expect a fill anytime soon.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has rolled back over but remains above the 16 level.  There is plenty of room to move lower on the short term indicators here.  We have snapped back to the violated up trend line on the NASDAQ.  Another upside day will negate the breakdown that we had there.  The up trend line in the S&P 500 that began in June has held.  So now I will have to question the wisdom of my idea to buy the SPY October puts when we reach resistance, probably on Monday morning.  Perhaps if the volume is light again it might be worth a try but it seems that the market tone has changed in a hurry here.  Yes, we're still at risk of the next headline one way or the other.  However we've seen quite a jump in the past two sessions and that's been just the opposite of the previous two sessions before.  So I'm not exactly sure what to make of what's going on.  I will check all the charts over the weekend and decide what to do.  Hopefully.  Europe and Asia were higher to close the week with the exception of Hong Kong.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.

We got a bounce today as the Dow was up by 122 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market sold off early in the morning but made it all the way back and closed near the highs for the session.  For now all we can say is that it's a bounce because the summation index is still moving down.  Tomorrows employment report could turn things back down.  I think that I'll wait and see if we make it back to the declining tops line on the S&P 500.  At that point I'll maybe try the SPY October puts.  That line is still pretty far from where we are.  I also think that the trades here for the S&P need to be short and sweet.  GE was up twenty cents on good volume.  Gold rose $5 as the US dollar was a bit weaker.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on OK volume.  The gold shares haven't followed gold here lately as they were before.  The outperformance of the gold shares previously was a strong positive for the precious metal complex.  Now that dynamic has changed.  I do still like the gold shares longer term and have kept open my order for the GDX January calls.  However the pinching of the Bollinger bands on gold has me concerned if we break hard to the downside.  Hasn't happened yet but I'm keeping an eye on it.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is overbought and did reverse today.  That is a plus for the bulls.  RUT managed to turn up today as well.  But we aren't out of the woods by any means as of yet.  I will say though that some of my medium term tools have reached a point where a bottom could form.  But we'll have to see how the week closes.  Tomorrow should be interesting.  The weekly indicators for the S&P are mid-range, so there's still room to go lower there.  Short term is oversold.  Without a clear signal, I'm inclined to wait things out until next week.  Europe and Asia were lower, we'll see if they bounce tonight as well.  We'll close out the week tomorrow.  

No doubt the direction now as the Dow fell 494 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 negative.  The summation index is moving lower.  RUT has led the way down and it wasn't wrong.  The question now turns to how low do we go?  You can make a case for a double top on the S&P 500.  If that's the case then we're going much lower, perhaps down to the 2700 level or so.  The 200 day moving average might be the first resting place and that's around 50 S&P points lower.  We are short term oversold for the major stock averages but may simply stay that way.  I'm not sure if I will look for a place to try and play a bounce.  Perhaps waiting for a bounce to short is the way to go.  I'd expect more volatility on Fridays jobs report.  GE fell a dime on average volume.  Gold found buyers and rose $20 back above the $1500 level.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added a buck and GDX rose 1/2.  Volume was good.  The gold shares didn't follow the metal with the same zest as it recently has.  I did place an order for the GDX January calls but it will take a drop to get filled.  I'm now also considering the GDX November calls as the trading environment has changed in the past couple of sessions.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX climbed above 20 today and remains short term overbought.  This is another reason that I believe that a short term bounce is inevitable.  But the timing remains a problem as usual.  I also don't have the guts to try anything ahead of Fridays employment report.  Probably the prudent path would be to wait and see if the S&P 500 gets to its 200 day moving average and perhaps try the bounce there.  For SPY that would be around the 281 level.  However keep in mind that the volatility level has risen and trades should probably have a short time frame, especially for the S&P 500.  We are headed lower it's just a matter of how much.  October is already living up to its reputation.  The Bollinger bands are beginning to pinch on the gold and gold share charts.  That implies a big move is coming.  Which way is the question but I'm banking on the upside.  The short term technical indicators have started to turn back up for both gold and the gold shares as well.  Europe and Asia were both lower overnight and I'd expect more of the same tonight.  We'll keep an eye on things.   

The Dow got clobbered today and fell 343 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is now moving lower with intent.  Any ideas that I had of getting the SPY October calls are gone in the near term.  The NASDAQ has broken its up trend line that began in June.  The major stock indices are short term oversold but now will probably remain that way.  Weak economic data was the cause for todays decline and all the major averages took a hit.  The TRAN got clobbered as well.  RUT was the canary in the coal mine as it has been dropping mostly straight down for about two weeks.  The S&P 500 closed below its 50 day moving average.  GE fell 1/3 on good volume.  Gold bounced back $15 as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on good volume.  I'm considering putting in the GDX January call order here but it will take more of a decline in the gold shares for it to get filled.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed above 18 today and the short term indicators are overbought.  That could imply that this decline doesn't have legs.  Of course the market will usually do what is least expected and the VIX can always remain overbought.  However with the S&P already oversold this isn't a move lower that I'm going to chase just yet.  Fridays employment report should be the next big moving data point.  The small stocks are generally the leaders, so the NASDAQ breaking of the up trend line should be a clue.  That line comes in at around 290 for the SPY.  So should we expect a break there as well?  That's the question in my mind at the moment.  Or is that the spot to try the SPY October calls?  Always plenty of questions in the game.  Probably my best course of action here will be inaction as I'm not convinced about one way or the other.  Early today would have been the time to get short in retrospect.  How long the decline lasts is another question that will need to be answered.  For now I think that I'll wait for Friday but that could change overnight.  Asia was higher and Europe lower in last nights trade.  We'll see what tomorrow brings. 

We closed out the month with a gain as the Dow rose 96 points on about average volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is trending lower but not at a rapid rate.  We finished off of the best levels for the session.  I still considered buying some SPY October calls today but we never got any weakness.  I suppose it's back to the sidelines to wait for another signal.  The short term indicators do appear to want to turn back up here.  Nobody is looking at a run to new all time highs here and usually the market does what you least expect.  I'm not sure if I have the guts to get long here though.  GE was off a dime on light volume.  Gold dropped today as the futures lost over $25.  Near term support has been violated and the next support comes in at around $1450/$1425.  A small head and shoulders top has been validated with todays price action.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU shed 2 2/3, while GDX lost 3/4.  Volume was good.  GDX is not completely short term oversold yet but more action like today will get it there.  I'm now looking out to the GDX January calls as that would give the trade plenty of time to work.  GDX also looks like it could have a head and shoulders top formation but it hasn't been triggered yet.  Near term support is at 26.  If that doesn't hold we could go back to 24 and then 23.  I'm still long term bullish on gold whatever happens here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX looks like it could be putting in a short term top here and that would be bullish for stocks.  It is another reason why I still favor the SPY October calls here.  The major stock indices are short term oversold and I would expect some kind of bounce besides what we've seen from the lows during Fridays session.  We do have the employment report due at the end of the week.  It's possible that we'll be on hold until then as well.  I may still buy near term weakness but that isn't set in stone.  The more prudent path could be to wait things out here for a better signal as I have already stated.  I might put in an order for the GDX January calls and simply wait to see if the market comes to it.  There isn't any rush there because it looks like gold still has some more to fall to meet the measuring objective of the head and shoulders top.  Asia was lower with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe traded higher.  We'll begin the month of October tomorrow.   

Lower to close out the week as the Dow fell 70 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The market did manage to finish up from the lows but we are in a precarious position.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow.  The NASDAQ did manage to close back above its up trend line from June but another day like today and that line will be broken.  The VIX climbed above 18 and is still above the 16 level.  The S&P 500 touched its 50 day moving average and bounced.  We are not yet completely short term oversold on the major stock indices.  Negative trade headlines spooked the market today.  I did not place any orders for the SPY.  GE was flat on light volume.  Gold was off eight bucks and came off of its lows as well.  The US dollar finished little changed.  The XAU fell a couple points, while GDX lost 2/3.  Volume was heavy.  Not yet oversold for the gold shares.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The market did come back in the final hour today when it looked like things were really going to get ugly.  That is a positive.  The NASDAQ held right where it had to but any negative action on Monday will change the picture.  It's obvious that we're at an important juncture for the market.  We either hold on here and start to move higher or things will probably really start to fall apart.  Monday is the last day of the month.  Not sure how that will affect things.  We'll have to keep an eye on the weekend headlines out of the US and China.  Anything good or bad out of there will drive things early Monday.  I would still like to try the SPY October calls but I'll have to go over the indicators over the weekend.  Plenty of time left in the October option cycle.  Asia slightly lower and Europe was higher to finish out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.    

Lower but off the worst levels of the day as the Dow fell 79 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The market appears to be trying to hold on here but I'm not exactly sure that it will be successful.  I did place an order again for the SPY October calls but it wasn't filled.  Things certainly get trickier for that trade now as we've moved past the prime time to enter it.  The short term technical indicators for the major stock indices are not completely oversold yet either.  The NASDAQ is getting close to violating its up trend line that began in June.  There is not a crystal clear picture of what to do here but there really never is.  I'm still leaning towards the bullish side though for now.  A break of that NASDAQ line would change things though.  The impeachment wild card is a problem going forward.  Plus we can't forget the trade troubles as well.  GE was off about 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was little changed.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/3.  Volume was lighter.  I'd prefer to see the gold shares get oversold again before trying the GDX calls again.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is staying above the 16 level and that's not really bolstering the bullish case for calls here.  It seems to me that we've moved into a zone where there's more questions than answers for the market.  I had a better handle on things a couple of days ago for the short term SPY call trade.  Now things aren't so clear cut.  I'll check things again tonight and go from there.  End of the month and quarter coming up on Monday.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher in last nights trade.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Back to the upside today as the Dow gained 162 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now moving sideways.  I did place an order this morning for the SPY October calls but it did not get filled.  Opportunity missed for now.  I may try again tomorrow if we head lower but the ideal time for purchase has probably passed.  I'm not sure if this is a turnaround that will lead us to new all time highs gain.  The S&P 500 is forming what looks like a rising wedge and that is usually bearish.  GE was up about twenty cents on lighter volume.  Gold dropped over $25 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 3 1/8, while GDX dropped over a point.  Volume was heavy.  Thankful for not chasing the gold shares here but would like to try the GDX calls again when we get back to short term oversold.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Disappointed to not be in on the SPY October call trade as I needed to make adjustments early in today session but failed to do so.  That said, the work at least was correct as short term upside has happened.  Whether or not it continues is the question.  Impeachment talk continued but the market ignored it and that may be all we need to know.  Some of the short term technical indicators look like they want to turn back up but there's nothing definitive yet.  We also have not made it all the way to oversold.  Perhaps buying weakness will work tomorrow but that remains to be seen as well.  Like I said, I'm not sure this is the beginning of a run to new all time highs but it could be.  We still have a few days left in September to get through and October can be a roller coaster month.  I do like that fact that the VIX closed back below its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  That certainly helps make the case for bullishness here.  But we all know things can change with the next headline.  Europe and Asia were lower in overnight trade.  We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

Lower today on impeachment worries as the Dow fell 142 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative.  This will turn the summation index down.  The overall market was much weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ off over 100 points.  We did get a signal last night from the McClellan oscillator of a big move within the next two days.  Todays price action takes care of that.  I'm still a believer that weakness can be bought here for the short term.  I am looking at the SPY October calls and will probably purchase some tomorrow if we get more selling.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over and are moving down for SPY.  We aren't yet completely oversold there but are getting close.  Timing as always will be key on the entry.  This could be a buy on Wednesday sell on Friday type of deal.  We are seeing weakness in the latter half of September and that wasn't unexpected.  GE lost 1/3 on average volume.  Gold once again continues to find buyers and was up just about $10.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU rose a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume remains good here.  Not completely overbought for the gold shares yet on a short term basis.  Just another missed trade here for me.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX closed above the 17 level and above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  The short term technical indicators here are mid-range for the most part.  The spike higher here could possibly be the beginning of higher volatility and lower prices.  Then why try the SPY calls tomorrow?  Well I'm looking at more than just indicator here and my work points to some type of positive price behavior within the next couple of sessions.  Barring a complete out of the blue collapse, I have reason to believe that the market will be moving higher in the near term.  It may only be a day or two but it does appear to be a trading opportunity.  Yes, the premiums are high with so much time left in the October option cycle but if a signal comes forward and looks good I have to have the guts to give it a try.  Who knows?  Maybe something will happen overnight and I'll change my mind.  Or maybe the market will change it for me.  However as it stands now if we do see some selling tomorrow I'll be trying the SPY October calls.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

Not much of a start to the week as the Dow gained 14 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over here but I do think we'll make another run at new all time highs soon.  I also think that weakness tomorrow can be bought for a short term trade.  Whether or not I try the SPY October calls remains to be seen.  GE lost a few cents on light volume.  Gold continues to find buyers, the precious metal gained almost $15.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up two points, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was good.  Silver rose almost 5% today.  Money continues to flow into the precious metals complex and that cannot be ignored.  I'm still considering the GDX October calls but the ideal time to purchase has passed.  We've also just moved into the October option cycle, so there's no rush to put on any position.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Pretty close to new all time highs on the S&P 500.  With the VIX staying below its 50 and 200 day moving averages, I'd say the chances are good that we'll see new all time highs sooner rather than later.  This, despite being short term overbought on the S&P short term indicators.  That's my guess at the moment.  If we do get through the near term overhead resistance on the S&P with good volume, a rally should take place.  Hasn't happened yet and all could simply turn lower with the next headline as well.  My fondness for the gold shares here has already been disseminated but the opportunity appears to have been missed due to my return from being away from the trading desk.  Patience will have to be the game plan for now there.  Asia was higher with the exception of Hong Kong.  Europe traded lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.   

It was a downer to end the week as the Dow fell 159 points on expiration heavy volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is still moving up.  Hard of what to make of todays session with the expiration taking place.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over but some of my other tools suggests that this isn't the beginning of something big to the downside.  However we could still see near term weakness but without a fatal drop.  The recent breadth also does not suggest a market rout on the horizon.  GE was off a nickel on average volume.  Gold found buyers in the afternoon and the futures advanced $18.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU rallied 1 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was good.  It appears that I've missed out on the GDX October calls.  The short term indicators say that the gold shares have room to move higher here but I'm not inclined to chase it.  I may change my mind over the weekend.  Mentally I'm still a bit tired.  The VIX turned higher today as it is now coning off of an oversold reading.  We are still below the 16 level and that's something to watch.  As I said before, the end of the month could get dicey since we've had such a good first half of September.  I don't have any SPY trades in mind at the moment.  I'm still trying to adjust back from being away for a couple of weeks.  I think my next trade will be in the gold shares but I'm not exactly sure if chasing them here is the thing to do.  Plenty to ponder this weekend.  For now I'll just have to try and get some rest to be ready for Monday morning.  Asia was higher and Europe mixed last night.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  the summation index is still moving up.  The overall market was stronger than the Dow.  The market needs to show some strength here or it appears to be rolling over.  We're still short term overbought.  September is generally a tale of two halves.  With the first half being positive, it usually reverses the outcome of the first half in the second.  Strength implies weakness and weakness implies strength.  It doesn't always occur that way but it does more often than not.  So we'll need to see a run to new all times highs in a hurry or take note.  GE was up a few cents on light volume again.  Gold was up a few bucks on the futures.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 1 3/4, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was average.  It appears that I've missed the chance for the October GDX calls.  Although GDX is more oversold than overbought, the indicators have turned up.  Yesterdays low looks like the ideal entry point but having just gotten off the plane my mental state of mind wasn't ideal for trading.  I'm slowly coming back.  I am a believer in the move that gold has made.  I'm just looking for a decent entry point for the next long trade.  I'm also considering going further out in time, to November or January.  However if we do happen to pull back again in the near term I may still try for October.  Mentally I'm still a bit tired.  The VIX remains oversold but in rallies it stays that way.  But the VIX is saying that the next logical trade in SPY should be the puts.  I kind of agree but will need to see an overbought reading on one of my own indicators first.  Not there yet.  We've got the September option expiration tomorrow so things could get interesting.  Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Hong Kong last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

It was a down and up day as the Dow rose 36 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving higher but not with the previous gusto.  The Dow was off over 200 points after the Fed announcement but then climbed all the way back and then some.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow today but it appears that things want to move higher.  Perhaps the positive bias of options expiration week will take hold.  Short term overbought here to be sure but you cannot overlook todays comeback which was impressive.  New all time highs are a distinct possibility.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost $8 on the futures despite a drop in the Fed funds rate.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU fell 1 3/4, while GDX dropped 1/2.  Volume was heavy but the gold shares did come up from the lows on the session.  I'm still considering the longer term calls here.  Looking at October but may go out longer than that.  The ideal time to purchase may have passed though as the short term indicators are already coming up from the oversold level.  Mentally I'm tired as I just had a long travel day yesterday to get back to the desk.  I do not want to make any trades at the moment due to my exhausted state of mind.  The gold shares do interest me here on the long side but I can't commit right now.  The S&P 500 looks like it may break out to the upside here but there's only two days left in the September option cycle and I'm not going to attempt anything there.  The VIX is staying below 16, which implies that this rally has legs.  I'm going to cut things short today and try and get some rest.  Europe was mixed and Asia lower in last nights trade.  We'll see how they react to the Fed tonight.

We have continued higher this week and have a shot at making new all time highs.  Not many thought that was possible just a couple of weeks ago.  Although the S&P 500 is overbought here, in rallies it remains that way.  The VIX has dropped below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.  The summation index is solidly moving up.  RUT is up against its resistance and if it can get through this rally will have legs.  Hasn't happened yet but it is at an important juncture.  Gold has had a drop to short term oversold.  The gold shares as well.  GDX is already moving back up and that is a positive.  My hope is that instead of simply bouncing back straight up, it moves sideways for a while and consolidates.  That would give me a chance at trying the GDX October calls.  Probably just wishful thinking on my part.  I'm still away from my desk and will return in a week on the day of the Fed announcement.

Greetings all, as the markets broke out to the upside from the congestion zone of the past month.  We are now short term overbought for the S&P 500.  It's possible that we'll see some weakness near term and we are lower so far today.  Support is now at the breakout point of 2950, which is also the 50 day moving average.  The VIX did finally break the 16 and closed below there but now we are oversold on that indicator.  So I would not be overly bullish here.  We did not get any solid follow through on the breakout in the S&P.  GE is acting better and is above $9 today.  Gold has taken a slight drop from the recent highs but remains above the up trend line that began in June.  Support is at $1450 if we get that far.  GDX has broken the up trend line that started in June.  It also closed below its 50 day moving average.  Those are negative signs.  We are finally oversold here though on a short term basis.  I'm still considering the October calls here but would like to see a drop to the 25 or 26 area.  The measuring objective of 31 was reached and now we should consolidate before the next push higher.  I'm still away from my desk and not able to follow the game properly.  But I am following things as best I can and will report back in here when feasible. 

Heading back up today as the Dow gained 237 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive.  This will turn the summation index to the upside.  The S&P 500 is on the cusp of breaking out to the upside form the congestion zone.  Perhaps the jobs numbers will make that happen.  Of course we are at the mercy of the next trade headline, so let's not get ahead of ourselves.  But perhaps the selling has been exhausted and the beginning of September rise can occur.  A break above the 50 day moving average for the S&P could generate some short covering.  GE was up almost 1/2 on heavy volume.  Gold continued higher adding $6.  The US dollar was lower as it is running up against resistance.  The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 5/8.  Volume was average.  We are a nickel away from the 31 target for GDX.  This is a logical spot for the gold shares to take a rest.  But this rally has been fueled by plenty of money so I believe that it has staying power for quite some time.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX is heading back down to its 50 and 200 day moving averages.  Keep an eye on them because what happens there will tell us where this market is headed.  A break below those averages and prices above the congestion zone would imply that a rally is on.  Hasn't happened yet but a case can be made.  Light volume today is a concern though.  I'll be traveling tonight and away from my desk until September 18th.  If I can find my way to a computer during my travels, I'll provide an update.  But I won't be back full time until the Fed announcement in the middle of the month.  Asia was mixed but there was a huge rally in Hong Kong.  Europe was higher.  I'll be back soon.

The month began with some selling as the Dow fell 285 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving sideways.  The overall market was not as weak as the Dow.  We had a gap lower to start the day but the market did not continue to sell off.  We remain in the month long congestion zone for now.  The jury is still out on which way things go here.  GE was up a few cents on OK volume.  Gold found buyers today as the futures rose around $25.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up 1 1/4, while GDX added 1/2 on better than average volume.  Given the big jump in gold I would have expected the gold shares to perform better on the day.  Perhaps they were held back by the overall market.  They continue to be over extended though.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX bumped up today but came off of its best level.  We're in an interesting spot for the market where it could break either way.  Technically we're forming a flag after a decline which would imply lower prices going forward.  However the flag has taken so long to form that it could also be a consolidation before moving back up.  Some of the short term technical indicators are overbought here but not a complete consensus.  Of course we could get some kind of headline at any time that will move things in either direction.  But we cannot trade on guessing what that may be.  We also have the jobs report on Friday to contend with.  I'll be away from my desk beginning on Thursday, so I'm in the position to really not do anything at the moment.  I'll be gone for a week and a half.  I will try and get to a computer to update the blog but I can't make any promises.  It certainly isn't the ideal scenario for trading so I will probably remain on the sidelines unless I can get some better computer access.  But I doubt it.  Europe and Asia were generally lower.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.